384
FXUS63 KDVN 241716
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1216 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..18Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
A BRIEF COOL DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS
THIS WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD TO MOLINE TO STERLING ROCK
FALLS LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING, LOCATION, AND AVAILIBLE
MOISTURE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH ON TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS
FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
SOME MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI,
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRY SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
WAVE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 TO
THE MID 40S SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG LINE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
EASTERN IOWA, NORTHWEST ILLINOIS, AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
ARE FORECAST TO SIT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE HEAT DOME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGING WILL
EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S BY
THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ALSO CREATE
DIFFERENCES IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS
HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE FRONT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS BUT
ITS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
SURFACE BASED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS THE STRONG PREFRONTAL
INVERSION ERODES DESPITE ITS LATER TIMING. IF STORMS FORM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE BUT IF STORMS FORM ALONG
THE FRONT, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH TALL,
THIN CAPE PROFILES AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE LAYER. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT
OF 5) TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. THEY HAVE PLACED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
FAIRFIELD TO MOLINE TO STERLING ROCK FALLS LINE. ADDITIONALLY,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 WITH MODEL QPF OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF INCH.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ALMOST 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 45 TO 50 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
500 MB RIDGING AND THE HEAT DOME TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD AGAIN STARTING ANOTHER WARMING TREND ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY AS
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN US. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES ARE FASTER WITH THIS TROUGH
RESULTING IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
A VFR TAF CYCLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH JUST STREAMS OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS THE AREA. AS FOR SFC WINDS, WENT WITH A
HAPPY MEDIUM SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT 7-10 KTS FOR
THE PERIOD TO MAKE FOR SIMPLE TAF FCSTS FOR NOW, BUT THE SPEEDS
MAY DROP OFF TO 4-6 KTS LATE TONIGHT BEFORE GATHERING STEAM
AGAIN BY MID WED MORNING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page