976
FXUS63 KDVN 251106
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
606 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S TODAY, AND THE 70S
AND 80S ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUES
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING IN
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OF
SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD TO
CLINTON TO FREEPORT ILLINOIS AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF
5)EAST OF A MACOMB TO GENESEO LINE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BUT STRONG WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL NUDGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS UP ACROSS THE AREA FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
70S. DESPITE SOME MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA, THERE WILL BE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH.
TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WILL PUSH CAPE VALUES UP
TO 200 J/KG RESULTING IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY AND THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR NEAR
50 KNOTS. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM CDT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
ON THURSDAY, WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 80S IN FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI,
FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE DAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
LOWER 60S IN FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. GIVEN THAT THE GREENUP IS JUST BEGINNING,
THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 BY 21 UTC (4 PM) AND THEN INTO FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 10 PM THURSDAY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE TIED TO
FORCING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AS STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED. AS THE FRONT NEARS, STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
BE SURFACE BASED WITH HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 BUT THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST INTO THE EVENING. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD TO
CLINTON TO FREEPORT ILLINOIS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2
OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MACOMB TO GENESEO ILLINOIS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NOTICEABLE COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH
THE LOWER 50S TO THE SOUTH.
BY SATURDAY, 500 MB RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY AND
INTO THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, A
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US RESULTING IN A
PATTERN SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE SHORTWAVES EJECTING INTO THE
PLAINS AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
TAFS REMAIN VFR DURING THE PERIOD. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA 20Z/25 TO 03Z/26.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE GAINING MORE MOISTURE PARTICULARLY AS IT
MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. PRIOR TO THEN, THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AND
IMPACTS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
KMLI FOR ANY SLOWING AND BETTER PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE WHICH WOULD
WARRANT SOME SHRA AND POSSIBLY -TSRA MENTION. OTHERWISE, GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WITH SUNSET.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...MCCLURE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page