146
FXUS63 KDVN 252357
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
657 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWER
OR STORM THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT DRYNESS BATTLING THIS PROCESS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH RISK AREAS EXPANDING BACK
WESTWARD.
- BLUSTERY COOLER FRIDAY, THEN WARMING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH NEXT MAIN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
TONIGHT...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY ON THE IL SIDE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH PACIFIC FEED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
RINGING AROUND IT WITH IA AND NORTHERN IL UNDER THE RIGHT FLANK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW EMBEDDED BY PASSING UPPER WAVES/VORTS,
WITH ONE SUCH WAVE DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA CURRENTLY. SOME MID DECK
CLOUDS AND MAINLY ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS BEING INDUCED BY THIS
FEATURE CURRENTLY ACRS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST IA. BUT AS THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TO MID EVENING PROGRESS, INCREASING LLJ OF 25 TO
35 KTS MAY LOOK TO FIRE ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THTA-E CONVERGENT ZONES ACRS THE SOUTHERN
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA, FAVORING THE IL SIDE ESPECIALLY
THE I-80 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE QUAD CITIES. IF WE DO MANAGE TO GET
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING, THEY MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL
LOOKING AT COLD PROFILES ALOFT. BUT PROBABLY NOT SEVERE SIZE
HOWEVER, WITH MARGINAL MID LAYER MUCAPES. LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
40S NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AS A QUASI-STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY UNDULATES ACRS THE AREA MAKING FOR A NOCTURNAL LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WIND REGIME. THE FRONT WILL LOOK TO SHARPEN UP AND TAKE
ON WARM FRONT CHARACTERISTICS LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING.
THURSDAY AND STORM SCENARIOS...LLVL BAROCLINICITY REALLY TIGHTENS
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS, WHILE THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE ALOFT DIGS TOWARD THE REGION. SOME LLVL CYCLOGENESIS
TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ON THE LLVL TEMP GRADIENT AND SFC WAVE
PROPAGATES EASTWARD ALONG THE THERMAL RIBBON. THE INITIAL WEAKER WAVE
WILL LOOK TO PASS EASTWARD QUICK DURING THE MORNING, WITH A STRONGER
SFC LOW DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACRS NE/KS, AND SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACRS MO THROUGH THU EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY TO
SWITCH OVER TO A COOL FRONT QUICKER WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY AND LK MICHIGAN COOL ENHANCED FOR SOUTHWARD PUNCH
POWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PREFER THE MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST
ECMWF THAT HAS THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE SFC TEMP AND BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL TRENDS VERY CHALLENGING, WITH 12 HOUR HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING
IN THE MORNING NORTH OF I80, AND TEMPS CRASHING SOUTH OF I-80 BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE GET A RECORD
HIGH AT BURLINGTON IA(84 IN 1991) BEFORE FROPA.
AS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT, FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A
STRONG CAPPING EML ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WE WILL INITIALLY HAVE
JUST SOME PRECURSOR ELEVATED SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY BEFORE
BETTER LIFT FROM THE INCOMING WAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE MID/UPPER JET
STREAK DEEP LIFTS NORTHERN EDGE/GRADIENT OF OPTIMUM DEEP CONVECTIVE
INDEX PARAMETERS THAT WILL STILL BE ACRS THE SOUTHERN TO EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON(AS LONG AS THE LOW
60 SFC DPTS POOLED ALONG THE FRONT OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS). THUS WE
MAY(CAN WE BREAK THE CAP?) HAVE STORM INITIATION AFTER 3 PM FROM
ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND UP TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE
QUAD CITIES, WITH THE IL ACTIVITY PROBABLY GOING FIRST. THE FAR
SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHEAST MO CONVECTION MAY ZIPPER WEST AND FIRE AFTER
00Z FRIDAY. WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES AND IF MOST
CONVECTION TAKES OFF SUPERCELL IN NATURE AND ALONG AND POST-
FRONTALLY, LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE FCST
KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST HAIL TO GOLF BALLS OR EVEN 2
INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIAL STORMS ACRS IL, BUT SOME
BIG HAILERS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA BY
MID EVENING(8-11 PM). IF THE FRONT IS A BIT SLOWER THAN ACCEPTED
PROGRESSION, MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A WARM SECTOR STORM WHERE
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUT SEE THAT TAKING PLACE MORE
OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA. AS FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER BUT 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE ON THE IL SIDE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND NORTHEAST
MO.
ROBUST LLVL COLD ADVECTION INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR LOWS WELL DOWN IN
THE 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
FRIDAY STILL APPEARING TO BE A BLUSTERY POST-FRONTAL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND THE AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 LUCKY TO BREACH
50 DEGREES.
THEN A RE-BOUNDING WESTERN UPPER HIGH AND STRENGTHENING THERMAL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD NORTHEASTWARD AGAIN STARTING
ANOTHER WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
THE END OF THE LONGER RANGE. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BRING A PIECE OF
RIDGE-RIDING WAVE ENERGY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN TO PRODUCE THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALONG WITH THIS CHANCE THEIR MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS AGAIN. THEN EVEN LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
ACTIVE PATTERN EVOLVING IF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF CAN GET
ESTABLISHED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 26.16Z WITH SCT
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS SWITCHING
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BECOMING GUSTY. LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 2KFT
WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND MAY BRING A LOW RISK OF LLWS AT BRL
AFTER 10Z, BUT HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT MLI/BRL WITH THIS ISSUANCE. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND JUST BEYOND.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...GROSS
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