298
FXUS63 KDVN 262312
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
220 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A VERY SHARP BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS
FRONT, WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS.
- BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING AS COLD WEATHER SPREADS OVER THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM UP, WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
AT DAWN TODAY, A SOMEWHAT STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER IOWA AND
ILLINOIS, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EITHER SIDE OF IT. SINCE THEN,
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST ALONG THE FRONT, ALLOWING
THE WEST PORTION TO DROP SOUTH QUICKLY AS A SHARP COLD FRONT. THAT
WAVE IS NOW HEADING TOWARDS CHICAGO, NOTED BY INCREASED NORTHEAST
WINDS AT DBQ THIS PAST HOUR HITTING 36 KTS! THE SURFACE FRONT AT 1
PM, IS NOW SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. OUR WARM DAY HAS BEEN REPLACED
BY CLOUDS AND INCREASINGLY COOL NORTHEAST WINDS. BEFORE THIS MOVED
TO BURLINGTON, WE TIED THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT 84F!
SOME QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE MORNING, AND THESE ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH INSTABILITY LOCATED AT 500MB AND ABOVE, AS NOTED ON OUR 18Z
UPPER AIR SOUNDING. REGARDING SURFACE BASED STORMS, WELL, WE'RE
VERY MUCH CAPPED AT THIS TIME BY A STRONG EML/CAP CENTERED AT
800MB. THIS UNSATURATED WARM NOSE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT SURFACE
PARCELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY, WHICH NOW IS SHOWING UP IN
THE LATEST WOFS RUNS TODAY. THIS SCENARIO WAS DESCRIBED WELL,
AND PREFERRED BY OUR OVERNIGHT SHIFT, AND NOW LOOKS TO BE
VERIFYING. THUS OUR LOWER LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE USED
UNTIL CAA OCCURS IN THAT LAYER LATER THIS EVENING, WHEN THE
DEPTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES, EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING
STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT TONIGHT. WHILE NORMALLY,
I'D BE QUITE CONCERNED THAT THAT TIMING WOULD FAVOR LLJ
INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT, WE'RE ALREADY VEERED STRONGLY TO THE
WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST ALREADY. THUS, IT'S A RACE TO SEE IF
MOISTURE CAN REMAIN IN THOSE LEVELS SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG STORMS
TO FORM, AS THAT CAP ERODES THROUGH CAA. EITHER WAY, THE EVENT
IS DELAYED TO EVENING, AND NOW PROBABLY SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR, EXCEPT FOR VERY HIGH BASED ACTIVITY MENTIONED ABOVE.
THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE
HAIL, GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT, AND COOL AIR ALOFT.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT LACK OF MOIST FLOW TO INTERACT WIT THESE
STORMS, THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE RISK RATHER
QUICKLY TONIGHT, LEAVING US WITH GENERALLY A 5 PM TO 9 PM RISK
FOR MAINLY HAIL IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND THUNDER MAY PEAK CLOSER TO 10 PM BUT WE
SHOULD BE SEEING THAT FOCUS FOR NEW STORMS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
AREA BY THEN TOO.
BRISK COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND BRING SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. GFDI VALUES OF 15 TO 22 ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK MUCH WARMER AGAIN, WITH
PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS ACTIVE FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP OVER THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO A RE-BOUNDING WESTERN UPPER HIGH
AND STRENGTHENING THERMAL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD AGAIN STARTING ANOTHER WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE END OF THE LONGER RANGE. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO BRING A PIECE OF RIDGE-RIDING WAVE ENERGY WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN TO PRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THIS CHANCE
THEIR MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AGAIN. THEN EVEN
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE PATTERN EVOLVING
IF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF CAN GET ESTABLISHED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
THE LAST OF THE LINGERING -SHRA WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WITHIN THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE PERIOD, WITH MVFR CIGS BCMG VFR A FEW HOURS
AFTER THAT AS SKIES GRADUALLY THIN OUT AS APPROACH 12Z. A DEFINED
MIXED LAYER IS EVIDENT WITHIN MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH COULD KEEP A FEW
STUBBORN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH 12Z DUE TO
CONTINUOUS 360-020 FLOW, AT WHICH TIME WE DRY OUT ENOUGH TO LOSE THE
MIXED LAYER BRIEFLY WHICH SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN SKC TO FEW250 FOR A
FEW HOURS. AS WE APPROACH 18Z, FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS RETURN FROM
SCT/BKN050 AS MIXING RETURNS, ALONGSIDE GUSTS APPROACHING 20-25KTS
FROM 340-360. AS FAR AS INDIVIDUAL SITES, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
SIMILAR ACROSS THEM ALL EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF
LINGERING SHOWERS WHICH BASED OFF THE RADAR AT 23Z LOOKS TO BE
TRANSIENT AT BEST. OVERALL ASIDE FROM THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD,
WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS DURING
DAYLIGHT ON THE 27TH.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN/12
AVIATION...WFO MPX
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