322
FXUS63 KDVN 271118
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
618 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DRIED
VEGETATION WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK ALONG/WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WILL COMMENCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
- A PATTERN CHANGE AT THE END OF THE MONTH WILL CREATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BETTER PROSPECTS FOR SOME RAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HIGHS LOOK TO BE 45 TO 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT 15 TO 25 MPH
WINDS WILL CREATE AN ADDITIONAL CHILL.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, THE WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DRIED VEGETATION WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE RISK FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MIDWEST AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>98%) OF A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SIGNALING THE START OF A
PATTERN CHANGE. AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES EAST, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH
HIGHER DEW POINTS.
THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK ON SATURDAY FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. HUMIDITY LEVELS SLOWLY CLIMB SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AND THUS DO NO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK. HOWEVER, THE
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE OVERALL DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>98%) STARTING OUT WARM THEN COOLING DOWN.
LOW TO MEDIUM (25-40%) CONFIDENCE REGARDING RAIN CHANCES.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. INTERESTINGLY, THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE
DRIER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SO MOISTURE
ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL,
IN TIME, ARRIVE WITH THE GULF OPEN.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED (20-30%) CONVECTION EACH DAY BUT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE TIMED TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS POPS (WHICH APPEAR TOO HIGH) GENERALLY HAVE A 25
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS A 50-60% CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE QUITE INTERESTING. THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE CRITICAL FACTOR REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS. SOME OF THE MACHINE LEARNING SITES ARE
ALREADY SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. MOISTURE MAY
INITIALLY BE ON THE LOW SIDE BUT THERE IS A RESPECTABLE MOISTURE
PLUME COMING FROM THE GULF TO ALLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. STRATUS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS EXTENDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS JUST EAST OF THE KDBQ AND KMLI TERMINALS.
FLOW IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WHILE E/NE IS ONLY 5-10 KT AND
THUS OWES TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THIS BEING ABLE TO REACH
EITHER TERMINAL. IN ADDITION, SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXTEND JUST
SOUTH OF KBRL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR SOME STRATOCU FORMING FURTHER WEST WITH HEATING AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALTHOUGH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND SO BELIEVE
PRIMARILY SCATTERED MVFR BASES WITH A CHANCE (30%) FOR A TRANSIENT
MVFR CEILING. UPSTREAM, ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS, PRIMARILY VFR,
EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD
OF A WAVE. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE USHERED EASTWARD WITH THE WAVE
AND MAY BRUSH KCID AND KDBQ LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A PERIOD OF HIGHER MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS. SKIES THEN LOOK TO
BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE N/NW
TODAY WITH GUSTS 20-25+ KTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MCCLURE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page