573
FXUS63 KDVN 271846
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
146 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DRIED
VEGETATION WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA; A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE QUAD CITIES.
- ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WILL COMMENCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
- A PATTERN CHANGE AT THE END OF THE MONTH WILL CREATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH BETTER PROSPECTS FOR SOME RAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHICH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED OR EVEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FOR THIS REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MESSAGING THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. IN THIS AREA, NW WINDS ARE GUSTING 25-35+ MPH AND RH
HAS DROPPED INTO THE ~30 TO 40% RANGE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD, LEADING
TO COLD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S AREA-WIDE. WE
HELD OFF ON ANY FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME WITH AREAS SOUTH
OF OUR OUTLOOK AREA BEING FURTHER ALONG IN THE SPRING GREEN-UP.
ON SATURDAY, A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND DEVELOPING GUSTY S/SSW
WINDS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE QUAD CITIES AND ELEVATED CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA FOR LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING
(PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SIGNALING THE START OF A
PATTERN CHANGE. AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES EAST, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH
HIGHER DEW POINTS.HUMIDITY LEVELS SLOWLY CLIMB SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND THUS DO NO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK. HOWEVER,
THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE OVERALL DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ASSESSMENT...LOW TO MEDIUM
(25-40%) CONFIDENCE REGARDING RAIN CHANCES.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. INTERESTINGLY, THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE
DRIER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SO MOISTURE
ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL,
IN TIME, ARRIVE WITH THE GULF OPEN.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED (20-30%) CONVECTION EACH DAY BUT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE TIMED TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS POPS (WHICH APPEAR TOO HIGH) GENERALLY HAVE A 25
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS A 50-60% CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE QUITE INTERESTING. THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE CRITICAL FACTOR REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS. SOME OF THE MACHINE LEARNING SITES ARE
ALREADY SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. MOISTURE MAY
INITIALLY BE ON THE LOW SIDE BUT THERE IS A RESPECTABLE MOISTURE
PLUME COMING FROM THE GULF TO ALLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BREEZY NW WINDS (20-30 KTS) THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON
(20-30 KTS).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY, GUSTING 25-35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION; HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
(LOWEST NW OF THE QUAD CITIES). THESE DEWPOINT VALUES ARE IN THE
10TH-25TH PERCENTILE RANGE OF THE NBM. THE DRY AIR MASS AND
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL YIELD MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15-25%, AGAIN LOWEST WEST/NORTHWEST OF
THE QUAD CITIES. FORECAST GFDI VALUES ARE IN THE VERY HIGH TO
NEAR EXTREME CATEGORY AND ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO SLIGHT CHANGES
TO FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND MIN RH, SO IT'S IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS ON THE EXACT VALUES. IT'S POSSIBLE THE RED FLAG WARNING
MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED TO THE EAST IN LATER UPDATES, BUT FOR
NOW HAVE ISSUED IT WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED ON SATURDAY AS ANY FIRES THAT
DEVELOP WOULD QUICKLY SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ040-
041-051-052-063-064-076-077-087.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...UTTECH
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page