938
FXUS63 KDVN 282334
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS COULD BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS IOWA AND EXTREME WESTERN ILLINOIS. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS FORECAST IN THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH
BOTH SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS COLD RAIN OR MIXED
SNOW AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY HAVE NOW SEEN AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WHILE NOT GREATLY CHANGING THE
FORECAST, THIS IS COMBINING WITH WINDS GENERALLY NOT REACHING THE
LEVELS EARLIER FORECAST TODAY TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER VARIABLES LIKE
GFDI BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HUMIDITY
HAS FALLEN TO LEVELS BELOW 25% IN WESTERN AREAS, AND THIS IS ENOUGH
TO KEEP OUR MESSAGE CONSISTENT FROM EARLIER FORECASTS. NO CHANGE IS
EXPECTED TO THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
TONIGHT WILL BE FAR MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT'S "WINTER" NIGHT WHERE
MANY FELL TO THE MID TEENS. TONIGHT, LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S ARE EXPECTED, LEADING US INTO A MILD SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. INCREASING DEW POINTS SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP OUR FIRE WEATHER
THREAT A BIT LOWER ON A BROAD SCALE, BUT STILL WORTHY OF MENTIONING
AN ELEVATED THREAT IN OUR PRODUCTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THERE REMAINS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH INCREASED DEW POINT LEVELS IN THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY PERIOD. THIS WARM AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY IN OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
MORE AREA-WIDE TUESDAY. COVERAGE IN BOTH PERIODS SHOULD BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE, AS THERE'S NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR CONVERGENCE
ALOFT, IN A BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER, BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A PASSING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN ILLINOIS. THIS ALL SAID,
THERE IS A WIDE DISTRIBUTION ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY, AND THIS
SHOULD NOT BRING MUCH OF A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNT TO OUR AREA,
WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY 0.25 OR LESS.
LOOKING AT MONDAY NIGHT, IF STORMS CAN FORM THIS FAR SOUTH IN THE
WAA PATTERN ALOFT, HAIL COULD BE A THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORM.
THIS IS MORE PATTERN RECOGNITION VS KEYING OFF OF EXACT PLACEMENT OF
ANY BOUNDARY. IN THE END, A FEW STORMS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
MONDAY NIGHT OFFER UP A THREAT WELL ADDRESSED BY SPC'S DAY 3
OUTLOOK.
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S. SOME LIGHT OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN
THE WSW FLOW ALOFT IN THIS PERIOD WITH IS MOST LIKELY A COLD RAIN,
BUT MAY MIX WITH SOME SNOW AT TIMES AT NIGHT. THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK IMPACTFUL.
THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE TOWARDS LATE WEEK, WITH THE
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA AGAIN, AND WITH THAT, MILDER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RETURNS WITH LOWS IN THE
40S. RAINFALL CHANCES OF 40-60% ARE ALREADY SHOWING IN THE NBM FOR
THIS WAA PATTERN, HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WIDE POSITION OF QPF AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THIS OUTER PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
PREVAILING VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT
RANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AT TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
PASSING OPAQUE CLOUDS ARE COMBINING WITH WINDS GENERALLY NOT
REACHING THE LEVELS EARLIER FORECAST TODAY TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER
VARIABLES LIKE GFDI BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN TO LEVELS BELOW 25% IN WESTERN AREAS, AND
THIS IS ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR MESSAGE CONSISTENT FROM EARLIER
FORECASTS. NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING
TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THOUGH MORE MARGINAL THAN A CLASSIC RFW DAY,
THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, PLENTIFUL DRY FUELS/GRASSES LEAVE US
IN OUR MOST VULNERABLE STATE OF THE YEAR RIGHT NOW, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FIRE TO GET OUT OF HAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
REMAINS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BE A SIMILAR TO TODAY, THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE,
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER, IN THE 60S. HOWEVER, INCREASING DEW
POINT VALUES IN THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP RH VALUES
FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW 38% IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH IS MUCH HIGHER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S RH IN THE 20-30% RANGE. GFDI VALUES IN THE
VERY HIGH RANGE ARE PATCHY IN NATURE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON, INDICATING THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE A HEADLINED FIRE
WEATHER DAY, BUT RATHER MORE TYPICAL MESSAGING CAN BE USED FOR THAT
THREAT.
MONDAY, A MORE WIDESPREAD GFDI FORECAST OF "VERY HIGH" IS EXPECTED
AS HIGHS REACH THE 80S WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. IT'S A BIT
EARLY, BUT THIS COULD BE A PERIOD WE NEED TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINE/ RFW.
TUESDAY APPEARS WINDY AND COULD OFFER A THREAT AS WELL, BUT WITH
RAINFALL POSSIBLE, AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH, THERE IS FAR LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THAT PERIOD REPRESENTING A FIRE WEATHER DAY OF
CONCERN.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 30TH....
BURLINGTON.........84 IN 1986
CEDAR RAPIDS.......82 IN 1943
DUBUQUE............81 IN 1943
MOLINE.............82 IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ040>042-
051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ001-015-
024-025-034.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...UTTECH
FIRE WEATHER...ERVIN
CLIMATE...08
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