678
FXUS63 KDVN 111753
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1253 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY ONE AREA.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN SEVERAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN LINE THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
TODAY...AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION(WAA) REGIME DAY BEHIND
DEPARTING RIDGE COMPLEX OFF TO THE EAST. THE WARMING WILL BE MORE
REALIZED ALOFT INITIALLY AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEVELOPING
INVERSIONS, ESPECIALLY A WELL PRONOUNCED LOWER BASED ONE AT H9 TO
H8 MB. CLOUD COVER ALSO TO BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY, INITIALLY IN
THE MID TO HIGH LAYERS BUT THEN LOWER STUFF TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP A LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL
TODAY WITH VALUES HELD DOWN IN THE 50S. ALTHOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL
LOOK TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA TODAY, A RIDGE-RIDING VORT MAX WILL
COMBINE WITH THE WAA TO PRODUCE INCREASING ELEVATED SHOWERS ACRS THE
AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND LASTING INTO TONIGHT. THE COVERAGE
SCTRD IN NATURE AND HIGHER ON THE IA SIDE, BUT GETTING INTO
NORTHWEST IL BY THIS EVENING AS WELL. SOME MARGINAL MID LAYER LAPSE
RATES AND MUCAPES OF 400-800 J/KG TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDER ACRS THE
NORTHWESTERN DVN CWA, BUT BETTER STORM SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE WEST
AND NORTH FROM WEST OF THE DSM AREA UP THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WI.
SOME OF THE STRONGER ELEVATED CELLS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME
HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS BY LATE
TONIGHT.
TONIGHT...FCST SOUNDINGS AND PROFILERS SUGGEST A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ
TO REALLY CRANK UP TONIGHT TO 45-55 KTS, AND THE CONVERGENT AXIS
SHIFTS ACRS EASTERN MN INTO WI WHERE AN ELEVATED TYPE MCS MAY OCCUR
TONIGHT. A FEW LINGERING ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LOCALLY
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-20 MPH PRODUCING A STEADY
TO SLOW RISE NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY SKIRT BY QUICKLY IN THE FAST
FLOW IN THE MORNING, WITH A MORE OPTIMUM WARM MOIST CONVEYOR OCCURRING
BY AFTERNOON TO SHUTTLE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP ACRS THE
AREA FOR AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE EVENING. IF THE SHOWERS/STORMS
CAN GET SFC ROOTED, THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN ROBUST LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS. IF THE
BL WAA CAN BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SFC DPTS IN THE
LOW 60S, ENOUGH SFC BASED CAPE COULD BE THERE FOR THE WIND CAUSE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FESTER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED
SWATHS OF RAINFALL RANGING FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 BY MONDAY MORNING.
AWAY FROM THE STORMS, MIXING PROFILES SUGGEST AMBIENT SFC WIND GUSTS
OF 35 TO 40 MPH.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
RATHER DEEP SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROF ESTABLISHING AND RESULTING IN
A TROUBLESOME ARCHING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW AIMED RIGHT UP
ACRS THE CENTRAL TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
WARM SECTOR STORMS ON MONDAY, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGING TO RE-AMPLIFY AND NUDGE IT'S WAY RIGHT
UP ACRS THE CWA WITH LLVL CYCLOGENESIS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY LAYING OUT MORE TO THE
NORTH ACRS SOUTHERN MN INTO WI. THIS IS WHERE THE MONDAY NIGHT MCS
ACTION ZONE/CONVECTIVE SPAWNING GROUNDS MAY OCCUR. THE LOCAL AREA
MAY GET IMPACTED BY AN EML CAP, BUT STILL SOME CHANCE FOR A PORTION
OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM JUST TO THE NORTH TO BLEED DOWN INTO THE
NORTHER CWA AND BE A THREAT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS FURTHER MODEL RUNS AND TRENDS OF COURSE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK, BUT THIS MAY BE A SCENARIO WHERE WE HAVE TO TAKE
IT DAY BY DAY AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL DEPEND ON WHAT OCCURS THE
PREVIOUS DAY AND NIGHT, WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW INTO THE
FOLLOWING DAY AFFECTING THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
THIS AS PIECES OF THE UPSTREAM TROF EJECT OUT IN THE MID CONUS
SOUTHWESTERLIES AND UP ACRS THE MIDWEST, UTILIZING BOUTS OF WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR UP OFF THE WESTERN GULF FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
ROUNDS OF WARM DAYS IN THIS STRETCH AS WELL, WITH 80S LOOKING LIKLEY
FOR THE BREEZY WARM DAYS OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH SOLID 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
A SMALL SCALE WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST
IOWA THIS AFTERNOON HAS MAINTAINED A PRESENCE OF RAIN WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, NAMELY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER.
THIS SHOULD LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE WITH THIS TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL THE
IMPACTS FROM THESE WOULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITY.
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE
SPECIFIC AREA OR EVEN TIMING OF THESE. HAVE SOME PROB30S IN THE
TAF FOR THESE AND HOPEFULLY MORE CONFIDENCE IS OBTAINED ON
YAY/NAY TO SHOWERS OR STORMS BY THE 00Z ISSUANCE. OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE TONIGHT IS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET WITH 45+
KT FLOW AS LOW AS 1,500-2,000 FT, SO CONTINUE TO INCLUDE LLWS
THAT SHOULD PERSIST A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON WILL BE STOUT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. IT IS
LOW CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, HOW HIGH GUSTS WILL REACH DUE TO
PROBABLE CLOUD COVER. THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
REACHING SPORADIC 35 KT GUSTS AT THIS POINT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...FRIEDLEIN
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