090
FXUS63 KDVN 120831
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY TODAY (30-40 MPH GUSTS) WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
- WARM AND SEASONABLY HUMID AIR MASS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME
LIKELY BEING ORGANIZED POSING OCCASIONAL SEVERE THREATS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
WINDY AND WARMER TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NW OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW WILL ADVECT A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW/MID 70S ON AVERAGE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SUB-850MB WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS,
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH. A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RIDE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND REACH EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BY THE
AFTERNOON. FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND DEEP LAYER WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED/ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING, OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BATCH OF RAIN. RAIN CHANCES TODAY ARE HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA (60-80%+) AND DROP OFF
TO 40-60% ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
PREVENT A SEVERE RISK, BUT WITH THAT SAID LOCALLY ENHANCED 40+
MPH GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS THAT
DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH CEILING HEIGHTS DECREASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH ONGOING RAIN, MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DROP OFF IN TEMPS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO THE
NE. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. LATEST NBM AND HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 - 0.50"+ IN A SWATH ROUGHLY IN THE
COUNTIES ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A BROADER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND OVER THE MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY
ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT DOES SO. WITH A SURFACE FRONT
IN THE VICINITY, LIKELY OSCILLATING SOME DUE TO MESOSCALE
EFFECTS, THIS PRESENTS AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE REGION.
MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY OR DURING MONDAY MORNING. AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER (EML) IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER, AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE GENERALLY IS VOID OF ANY SHORT WAVES IN THAT TIME. SO
THOSE TWO TOGETHER CURRENTLY INDICATE MUCH OF IF NOT THE ENTIRE
DAYTIME COULD BE QUIET IN OUR FORECAST AREA, AND A WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID ONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 75 TO 80 FAVORED
AND DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS MOST FAVORED AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH CURRENTLY IS
IN THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA REGION LATER MONDAY. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE A LITTLE MORE
NORTH OF EAST, WHILE THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION POTENTIALLY TRACKING A LITTLE MORE SOUTH OF
EAST AND BEING MORE PROBLEMATIC FOR OUR AREA WITH A SEVERE WIND
THREAT MONDAY NIGHT.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF
5) RISK DOWN TO I-80. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON STORM COVERAGE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND WHETHER OR NOT STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONGEAL INTO A LINE
AND DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
NBM HAS 20-50% POPS (HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH) WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO DROP IN
FROM THE NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT, IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY THREAT
WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE A
SECOND, STRONGER ONE DEEPENS IN THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY. THIS TYPE OF SETUP IS COMMON WITH A SLOW-MOVING WESTERN
CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ON MOST GUIDANCE IS
FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY NORTH TO OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY
REACQUIRING WARM FRONTAL CHARACTERISTIC TUESDAY P.M., ALTHOUGH
THAT MAY DEPEND ON ANY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES THAT ARE
SIMPLY TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS DISTANCE. IF NO
CONVECTIVE EFFECTS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP 80
AREAWIDE WITH 15-17C UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND A
VERY WARM STARTING POINT TO THE DAY (60S -- POTENTIAL DAILY
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR APRIL 14). OBVIOUSLY WITH A WARM FRONT IN
THE AREA DURING MID-SPRING, THAT WILL BE A TIME PERIOD TO WATCH,
INCLUDING POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THAT LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA, POSSIBLY THE BEST KINEMATICS OF THE FEW
DAYS SPREAD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES
BECOME MUCH MORE EVIDENT IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIPS AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. ALL IN ALL, THIS PRESENTS
A 48 HOUR PERIOD OR SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, WITH SPECIFIC
MAGNITUDES AND TIMING BEING MORE RESOLVED AS WE DRAW CLOSER.
BEYOND...PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY ACTIVE BUT POSSIBLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT COOL AIR BEHIND IT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS, MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND LLWS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AM. SHOWERS/RAIN WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH ISOLATED/LOW
COVERAGE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST THUNDER
CHANCES SUNDAY PM ARE AT MLI AND BRL SO HAVE MENTIONED IN
PROB30S AT THESE TWO SITES. CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH IFR POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS
MENTIONED, STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED (FROM THE SSW) WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-35 KTS FROM MID MORNING SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING TO 20-25 KTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...FRIEDLEIN/UTTECH
AVIATION...UTTECH
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