281
FXUS63 KDVN 131449
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
949 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE RISK HAS INCREASED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
5) FOR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
- WE CONTINUE TO HAVE MULTIPLE DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THIS
WEEK. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY
(LEVEL 3 OF 5).
- WARM AND SEASONABLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS
ARE PROGGING A COMPACT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY 30-40 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET, ENHANCING CONVERGENCE.
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND NEAR 80 ACROSS OUR SOUTH,
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, SHOULD SUPPORT
SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON - AMPLE
INSTABILITY TO FUEL CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, PROGGED MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES APPEAR QUITE STEEP, WITH VALUES AROUND 7-8 C/KM.
ALL OF THIS TO SAY THAT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS RIPE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC HAS UPGRADED THE SEVERE RISK TO A SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF GALENA, IL SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS PUTNAM COUNTY, IL, ALONG WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) NOW ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SIGOURNEY, IA TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY, IL.
DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO BEING MORE
OF A SECONDARY THREAT. HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME
SURFACE-BASED, THIS WOULD HELP INCREASE THE DAMAGING
WINDS/TORNADO THREAT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK,
RESULTING IN ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY BEFORE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW IOWA AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
TONIGHT, PLACING EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA, WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS (20-30 MPH) ADVECTING A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR
MASS INTO THE REGION (WITH TDS REACHING THE ~MID 60S). ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON AS INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
(850-700MB) LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIFT/WAA AND INCREASE IN MUCAPE
TO 1500-2000 J/KG PER LATEST HREF. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION TODAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MINNESOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM
FRONT. FORECAST STEERING FLOW (850-300MB MEAN WIND) AND
FORWARD-PROP. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THESE STRONG TO SEVERE
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL TRACK MOSTLY TO THE EAST OR EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. WHAT WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS IF
ADDITIONAL STORMS CAN FIRE BACK TO THE WEST NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS NW IOWA. IF THIS HAPPENS, THEN A LINE OF STORMS COULD
STILL DROP IN FROM THE NW LATE AT NIGHT, LIKELY AFTER 10 PM.
MOST MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE EC HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SPC HAS
PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF THE AREA AND
HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK DOWN TO THE I-80 COUNTIES WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
POPS HAVEN'T CHANGED TOO MUCH EITHER AS WE ARE STILL MESSAGING
20-50% ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
OUR ATTENTION FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD STARTS RIGHT OFF THE BAT WITH
ANOTHER SEVERE STORM RISK FOR TUESDAY, AND THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE
MORE LIKELY TO BE ACTIVE FOR US. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT FROM
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE PULLED SOUTHWARD BY YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW,
THIS ONE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS (FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM). THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE INFLUENCE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION (IF ANY DEVELOP) ON HOW
THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY. IF THE BOUNDARY DOES REACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, IT WILL BE GAME
ON FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE VOLATILE
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO LOWER 80S FOR MOST, EXPECT INSTABILITY TO BE QUITE
HIGH, WITH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF SBCAPE OF 2000 J/KG
OR HIGHER AROUND 50-80+ PERCENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA. SPC HAS UPGRADED AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 TO
AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5), WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
POSSIBLE, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ONLY CONTINUE
AS THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER ONE ON FRIDAY. WE CONTINUE
TO BE OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR SLIGHT RISKS BOTH DAYS IN OUR REGION.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING AND SEVERITY AS PRIOR
CONVECTION CAN AUGMENT THE ENVIRONMENT, BUT THE VARIOUS MACHINE
LEARNING SEVERE PROBABILITY TOOLS SUGGEST THESE DAYS TO BE
VOLATILE FROM AN ENVIRONMENTAL PERSPECTIVE, SO MORE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON AS WE APPROACH THESE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. PREPARE FOR A
BUSY SEVERE WEATHER WEEK!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WITH SOME EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG
AT CID. PREVAILING IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT DBQ AND
CID. FURTHER SOUTH, PERIODS OF MVFR ARE EXPECTED AT MLI AND
BRL, WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE AT MLI. BY THE AFTERNOON,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN, REACHING AROUND 25 KTS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE MENTIONED THIS POTENTIAL IN PROB30S.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULTZ
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ/UTTECH
AVIATION...UTTECH
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