456
FXUS63 KDVN 131915
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
215 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORM RISK CONTINUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINING FOR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
- WE CONTINUE TO HAVE MULTIPLE DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THIS WEEK,
INCLUDING AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY, ALONG WITH SLIGHT RISKS FOR WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
- WARM AND SEASONABLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF GALENA, IL SOUTHEAST TOWARDS GALVA, IL, AND A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
SIGOURNEY, IA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY, IL.
AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING STORMS DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS,
ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO ANY STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
A WARM FRONT/SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THE LATEST HIGH-RES CAMS HAVE SOME
SLIGHT VARIATION OF JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE CONVECTION WILL REACH.
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT OUR NORTHERN CWA COULD BE CLIPPED BY THIS
ACTIVITY, WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE BUT COULD
STILL POSE A LOCALLY GUSTY WIND THREAT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY, WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, OWING TO THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WE
HAVE IN PLACE.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT ONCE THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY MOVES OUT, THERE
SHOULD BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY MORNING
(AND PERHAPS THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS)
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. TUESDAY'S SEVERE THREAT IS HIGHER FOR
US COMPARED TO TODAY DUE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN IOWA, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE PRIMED FOR SEVERE STORMS, WITH
THE 13.12Z HREF ENSEMBLE SBCAPE VALUES PROGGED AROUND THE 2500-3500
J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AROUND 30-40 KNOTS SHOULD ALSO HELP ADD MORE LIFT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION TO THE ENVIRONMENT, ALONG WITH ENHANCING LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR MAGNITUDES. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED,
AS WELL, ALL HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION. CAMS SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE MORPHOLOGY TO INITIALLY BEGIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADO THREAT. CONVECTION COULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A MULTICELL
CLUSTER, WHICH WOULD THEN SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT BY THE LATE
EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. WITH THIS SAID, SPC MAINTAINED THE
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF
LINE FROM SOUTHERN PUTNAM COUNTY, IL TO NORTHERN VAN BUREN COUNTY,
IA, WITH A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER THING THAT COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC IS A SIGNAL IN THE CAMS
FOR SOME TRAINING CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES, ALONG
WITH A PERSISTENT LLJ IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY. IF RAINFALL BECOMES
HEAVY OVER A SINGLE LOCATION, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS A MORE URBAN AREA,
OVERNIGHT FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A CONCERN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ONLY CONTINUE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER ONE ON FRIDAY. WE CONTINUE TO BE OUTLOOKED
BY SPC FOR SLIGHT RISKS BOTH DAYS IN OUR REGION. MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON THE TIMING AND SEVERITY AS PRIOR CONVECTION CAN AUGMENT
THE ENVIRONMENT, BUT THE VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE PROBABILITY
TOOLS SUGGEST THESE DAYS TO BE VOLATILE FROM AN ENVIRONMENTAL
PERSPECTIVE, SO MORE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
WEEK. STAY UP TO DATE ON THESE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS!
A QUICK LOOK AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOWS A CALMER PATTERN
DEVELOPING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS
TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. IN FACT, WE COULD BE DEALING WITH OUR FIRST BOUT OF
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS DURING THIS GROWING SEASON SATURDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS, LARGELY DUE TO DAYTIME CUMULUS
CLOUD COVERAGE, WERE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
ALONG WITH A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL EXIT THE
AREA TO THE EAST. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, MOST LIKELY FOR DBQ AND MLI, ALTHOUGH EXACT
AREAL COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AS WELL, GUSTING AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. TONIGHT, DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. HOWEVER, AS GUSTS DIMINISH, A
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR CID, MLI, AND BRL.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG FOR CID AND DBQ
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IFR FOG FOR DBQ, BUT
PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME (20-30% PER THE LATEST
NBM).
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ/UTTECH
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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