672
FXUS63 KDVN 141147
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
647 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WE CONTINUE WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THE REST
OF THE WEEK, WITH AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY, ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DECAYING WI MCS EXTENDS ROUGHLY
NEAR A LINE FROM INDEPENDENCE, IOWA TO MONTICELLO, IOWA TO
NEAR STERLING, ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS
MARKEDLY SLOWING AS ORGANIZED CONVECTION EARLIER IN WI CONTINUES
TO DIMINISH. 00Z DVN RAOB SAMPLED A WELL DEFINED EML, WHICH
UNTIL RECENTLY HAS LARGELY KEPT PRECIPITATION AT BAY EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF JO DAVIESS AND STEPHENSON COUNTIES ATOP THE
LINGERING LOW LEVEL COOL POOL NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP APPEARS TO SUGGEST
A CIRRUS TAG DENOTING A WEAK IMPULSE LIFTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ATTENDANT TO A VEERING 40-50 KT LLJ IS FOSTERING SOME SPOTTY
CONVECTION INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA, AND ALSO FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI ON THE BACKSIDE OF A WELL
DEFINED CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED WAVE SHIFTING TOWARD CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. FOR THIS MORNING, WE'LL MAINTAIN SPOTTY CONVECTION
CHANCES THROUGH DAYBREAK ATTENDANT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING
MECHANISMS. THIS WILL BE ELEVATED ACTIVITY AND COULD BRING AN
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT. THEREAFTER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THE REST OF
TODAY. THE RAP MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE ON SUPPORTING MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, AND IS MOSTLY AN OUTLIER. MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DOES SEEM TO SUGGEST ANOTHER POTENTIAL SUBTLE WAVE
LIFTING QUICKLY UP ACROSS OK/S KS, AND DISTANCE/SPEED WOULD
BRING THIS ACROSS THIS MORNING. WITH THE EML IN PLACE SHOULD ANY
CONVECTION OCCUR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME IT WOULD REMAIN ELEVATED,
BUT WITH HEATING COULD LEAD TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE CORES WITH HAIL AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT. LOW
CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON, BUT IT COULD HAVE SOME BIG IMPLICATIONS
ON WHAT HAPPENS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER RISK IT APPEARS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, JUST
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY IS LOCATED AND WHERE THE SUBSEQUENT MAIN
CORRIDOR FOR A SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IF WE DO END
UP WITH MORE CONVECTION FESTERING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, IT
COULD HELP RETARD THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW AND
BRING MORE OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-80 IN THE THREAT FOR A FEW
STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE EML LIKELY LIMITING
STORM COVERAGE. IF WE DON'T SEE MUCH CONVECTION IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN WE WILL LIKELY SEE THIS BOUNDARY LIFT
NORTHWARD AND IT COULD MIX OR EFFECTIVELY JUMP NORTHWARD TO HWY 20
OR POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER NORTH INTO S WI AND FAR NE IA JUST
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SERVICE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE THREAT IN OUR FAR NORTH OR NOT TOO FAR OUTSIDE OF THE
AREA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WHERE
THIS CHANCE FOR LATER PM/EVENING SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 40-50+ KT WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1500-2500+ J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS, WITH THE SUPERCELL VECTOR LARGELY PERPENDICULAR TO
THE INITIATING OUTFLOW SUPPORTING DISCRETE POTENTIAL MEANING THERE
MAY NOT BE MANY STORMS. THE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
LOOK TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE, PARTICULARLY LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL WITH LARGE CAPE IN THE GROWTH ZONE AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM, WITH ALSO A TORNADO THREAT DUE TO ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTION / INGESTION OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SRH.
ASIDE FROM THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE RISK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN EML. LATER TONIGHT, FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS, WE DO
ANTICIPATE A BURGEONING OF CONVECTION LATER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO LARGELY REMAIN ELEVATED WITH PRIMARILY A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER, ANY CONGEALING OF CONVECTION IN MULTI-CELLS
COULD FOSTER SOME STRONG, GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ONLY CONTINUE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER ONE ON FRIDAY. WE CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OR LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND SEVERITY ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY
DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONGOING CONVECTION OWING TO UNCERTAINTY ON
THE EXTENT OF AIRMASS RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE MORE OF A TRIGGER FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. IF WE CAN SEE
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCUR THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD
FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND VECTOR ORIENTATION MAY SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADO THREAT, BEFORE POTENTIALLY
GROWING UPSCALE INTO A QLCS WITH PREDOMINANTLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
AND POTENTIAL FOR SPIN-UP TORNADOES WITH ANY MESOVORTS.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRIER AND BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE ACTIVE
WEATHER, AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION.
THE BREAK IN THE QUIET IS SHORT-LIVED AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF BY
FRIDAY AND WE SEE STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION ON
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ON FRIDAY IS FAVORED TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF A LIFTING SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AND/OR PROPAGATING INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
IOWA FRIDAY EVENING WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, WE MAY
ONCE AGAIN SEE THIS ACTIVITY GROW UPSCALE INTO A QLCS WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING DAMAGING WIND AND SPIN-UP TORNADO THREAT BY MID TO
LATE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE RISK FOR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS, SPC HAS INTRODUCED A 30% (ENHANCED) RISK FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
A LOOK AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOWS A DRIER PATTERN
DEVELOPING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS
TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING NOTABLY COOLER AND MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF STRONG, GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS COULD BRING OUR FIRST BOUT OF FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS DURING THIS GROWING SEASON, POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT
THOUGH WINDS MAY STAY UP TO LIMIT THIS TO JUST A FREEZE POTENTIAL
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING ABOUT MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND FROST WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE PUSHED TO THE EAST OF ALL TAF
SITES WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT KBRL AND KMLI. LOW
STRATUS IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM MISSOURI AND MAY IMPACT
KCID AND KBRL THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21
AND 03 UTC MAINLY IMPACTING KCID AND KDBQ BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THE EXACT LOCATION SO USED A PROB30 AT BOTH LOCATIONS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE AT KBRL AND KMLI AFTER 06 UTC AND AND USED A PROB30 AT
BOTH LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00 UTC WEDNESDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...COUSINS
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