362
FXUS63 KDVN 151210
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
710 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF STORMS AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GREATEST CONCERN IS NORTH OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR WHERE THE
GROUND IS SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS OF 1-3+ INCHES.
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR FLOODING, AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
- SPC HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- TURNING MUCH COOLER/SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF
HWY 34 AIDED BY ASCENT FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND
ELEVATED WARM, MOIST ADVECTION ATOP A COOL POOL WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR A PRINCETON, IL TO MOUNT PLEASANT, IA LINE
CONTINUING TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
ISOLATED HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS LARGELY BEEN LEFT UNDISTURBED
UNTIL NOW. IN ADDITION, A VEERED LLJ IS LEADING TO AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CONVECTION
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW.
ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH THE WANING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. THE BREAK IN ACTIVITY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RECOVERY
OR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN IOWA
THIS EVENING. THE AMOUNT OF RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION IS
UNCERTAIN AND THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE MAGNITUDE/
COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THAT BEING SAID, HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT DUE TO
THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER DYNAMICS/FORCING AIDED BY 50-70M HEIGHT
FALLS AT 500 HPA AND MORE ROBUST MID LEVEL FLOW WITH 50-60+ KT
WINDS 700-500 HPA. THIS SHOULD FOSTER MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT
WITH ALL HAZARDS IN PLAY. THE LIFTING LOW SHOULD HELP LIFT THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BACK NORTHWARD AS A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT BY THIS
EVENING. WHILE OVERALL LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER, THERE
WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT PERHAPS MOSTLY FOCUSED ALONG/NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY WITH ANY CELLS THAT CAN INGEST THE ENHANCED SRH. RIGHT
NOW THIS BOUNDARY PLACEMENT LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY BETWEEN HWY 30
AND HWY 34 BY THIS EVENING, AND THUS THE HIGHER 5% TORNADO
PROBABILITIES IN THIS AREA MAINLY ON THE IOWA SIDE WHERE SHEAR
IS A BIT HIGHER BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LIFTING SURFACE
LOW. THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE GOOD VENTING ALOFT
AND COMBINED WITH A RATHER PERPENDICULAR VECTOR TO THE
INITIATING BOUNDARY WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
INITIALLY WITH ALL HAZARDS IN PLAY. THEN IN TIME, WE MAY SEE A
MORE MIXED MODE WITH PERHAPS MORE MUTICELL/LINEAR EVOLUTION
TAKING PLACE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT, WITH
LARGELY A RESULTING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. POTENTIAL
FOR REPEATED STORMS AND PERIODS OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF 1+
INCH/HR WILL FOSTER A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK OR MOST VULNERABLE AREA APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF
HWY 30 WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1-3 INCHES, AND AS A RESULT I HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A SHORT PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, AS A BOUT OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE REGION.
AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE AND STRENGTHEN WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. CURRENTLY THOUGH
THIS POTENTIAL IS LOOKING SOMEWHAT LOWER DUE TO SOME CAPPING AND
LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. THE MAIN CORRIDOR FOR SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY PM LOOKS TO BE TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND DEEPER SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO A LIFTING SHORTWAVE.
VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH PARALLEL VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION AND UPSCALE
GROWTH TO A LINE OF STORMS OR QLCS, WHICH SHOULD THEN SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT, AND TORNADO THREAT
WITH ANY EMBEDDED MESOVORTS. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SERVICE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY PM IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW/COLD ADVECTION.
OTHERWISE, BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER/SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE
ON TAP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP DOWN
AROUND OR POSSIBLY BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE AREA BOTH
NIGHTS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST (SHOULD WINDS DECOUPLE)
AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH THE BACK EDGE EXITING
KCID AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 22 UTC AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 6 UTC. MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE STORMS, MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST
AFTER 06 UTC.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR IAZ040>042-051>054.
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ILZ001-002-007.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...COUSINS
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