720
FXUS63 KDVN 152342
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SET TO COME
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE, WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- A SEASONALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHERE THE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF
OUR AREA IN AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
BRINGING UNSEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
SEASONALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. WHILE WE ALREADY HAVE ONGOING SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THAT, WE
WILL HAVE A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE AREA, WHICH WILL
BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF
CONVECTION. THIS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 30 AND
HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDORS. THUS, A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FOR
THOSE AREAS AT GREATEST RISK, OWING TO HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY. THE
SPC HAS OUR WHOLE AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, WHERE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE WITH THE LINE OF STORMS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH WITH
THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
COVERAGE AND SEVERITY.
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF MIXED-MODE
CONVECTION. EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, WE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR NORTH, THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW INTO MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL HAVE SEEN MORE SUN PEEKING THROUGH,
WHICH HAS ALLOWED MORE INSTABILITY TO BUILD. THUS, THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT IN OUR SOUTH, GENERALLY IN
THE FORM OF SEMI- DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS
AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL FURTHER GET MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
THROUGH MESOSCALE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL
GENERALLY BE SEEN BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 12-4 PM. GOING INTO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WE WILL SEE A LINE (POSSIBLY DISCONNECTED
LINE OF SUPERCELLS) MOVING INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST,
WITH SOME LEADING SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AS WELL. THE LEADING CELLS
COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR, WHICH ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 30 AND HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDORS. THESE
SUPERCELLS MAY FORM JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE, GENERALLY BETWEEN
4-6 PM, AND THEN GET ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN LINE. AS WE GET
TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS, THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE (QLCS- LIKE
WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST. TIMING-WISE, THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR WEST
AROUND 5-7 PM, AND MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME.
THE BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS, BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
NOW A LOOK INTO THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. THE AM CONVECTION AND
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER HAS DELAYED OUR SURFACE HEATING A BIT, BUT
CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SEEN. THIS MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL
INSTABILITY, BUT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE AROUND 2000-3000+, COLLOCATED WITH SHEAR
AROUND 50-60+ KTS, WITH LITTLE/NO CAP SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THUS, WE HAVE THE NECESSARY CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS
TODAY. ALTHOUGH, WITH STRONG FORCING MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, UPSCALE GROWTH IS EXPECTED. AS WAS MENTIONED, THIS COULD BE
IN THE FORM OF A DISCONNECTED LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. LAPSE
RATES ARE ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN THE MIDLEVELS, COLLOCATED
WITH A FAT CAPE PROFILE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER. SPC HIGHLIGHTS
PARTS OF OUR AREA IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL (2"+), WHICH
IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, ALL HAZARDS ARE IN PLAY TODAY, WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING WINDS AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES WHEN THE LINE OF
CONVECTION COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE ARE ESPECIALLY
FOCUSING ON COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR, AS THIS
IS GENERALLY WHERE THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WILL BE. THIS WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS POINT FOR SEVERE WEATHER (SOME SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE), WITH THE INCREASED TORNADO THREAT.
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN, WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSING THROUGH. THUS, AFTER ANY RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MOVE OUT THURSDAY AM, WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. THUS, WE
ARE IN FOR A BEAUTIFUL DAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF CONCERN, AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS
OFF OF THE ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WAVE WILL
DEVELOP A SEASONALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, PROGGED TO DRAG A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS, WE WILL HAVE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT CAN BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING, WHICH
CAN LEAD TO IMPACTS ON THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
HINTING AT THIS MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AHEAD OF THAT,
WE WILL SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN, WHICH WILL HELP BUILD INSTABILITY.
ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS, WE MAY HAVE CAPE VALUES UPWARDS
TO 2000-3000+, WITH SHEAR AROUND 35-45 KTS. THE SHEAR IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE RECENT EVENTS, BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH, THIS WOULD LEAD
ME TO BELIEVE THAT WE WILL LARGELY BE DEALING WITH A LINE OF
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION, BUT SOME INITIAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MORE DETAILS ARE TO COME, AS MORE
SHORT TERM HI-RES CAMS START ROLLING IN OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. THE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF OUR AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
THIS WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. MODEST COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN,
BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE SET
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH IS QUITE
THE CHANGE TO THE 70S AND 80S WE HAVE BEEN SEEING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WITH AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SEEING LOWS
APPROACHING FREEZING. THUS, OUR NORTH WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
SEE A FROST/FREEZE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH, CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER ON THIS NOW, AS TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS A FEW
DEGREES SINCE THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WHILE
COOLER, IT SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY PLEASANT WEEKEND.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
ACTIVE AGAIN. THERE REMAINS MANY DIFFERENCES AMONGST GUIDANCE, BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK, ALONG
WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE SHRA/TSRA THAT
IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS AND VISIBILITY DROPPING
LOWER IN HEAVIER ACTIVITY. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS 35-40 KTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE OF TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEST TO EAST
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LINE OF STORMS, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HINTS AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER OR STORMS TO LINGER AT DBQ FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH LOWERING MVFR CEILINGS AT DBQ AND MLI.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAY BREAK THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL VEER TOWARD THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND NORTHWEST
ON THURSDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR IAZ040>042-051>054.
IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ILZ001-002-007.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...DIEGAN
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