806
FXUS63 KDVN 170539
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER
HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE AREA BY SPC.
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH.
- AREA RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE FROM THE RECENT ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY PUSH RIVER LEVELS HIGHER. REFER TO THE HYDRO SECTION
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
TONIGHT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET BACK UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. SOME ISOLATED FOG MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN
VALLEYS DUE TO THE RAIN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, HOWEVER WITH SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED.
FRIDAY
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS SET TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY, WITH A
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.
TWO ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE FIRST EARLIER IN
THE AFTERNOON POSSIBLE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES TO AROUND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND
45 KTS. THIS ROUND IS WHEN MORE OF THE DISCRETE ACTIVITY COULD BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH A GREATER THREAT OF
QLCS/SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH BOTH ROUNDS OF STORMS, A GREATER THREAT OF THE
STRONGER TORNADOES WILL OCCUR WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT REMAIN
MORE DISCRETE AND ISOLATED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, AND A TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT, WITH MORE
BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING WITH THE SQUALL
LINE TYPE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH ALREADY WET CONDITIONS IN PLACE, AND THE HIGH
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM
BRINGING A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE
REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH THE
STORMS AS WELL.
THE LATEST SEVERE OUTLOOK BY SPC FOR FRIDAY HAS AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3 OF 5) AREA-WIDE AND WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING (LEVEL 2 OF 4). CONTINUE TO KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AS WE WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILS ON TIMING,
LOCATION, AND SPECIFIC HAZARDS.
SATURDAY
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
SATURDAY. WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
SURFACE, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MUCH LOWER INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH A MODERATING TREND INTO
MONDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OVERALL A QUIETER PATTERN
EXPECTED WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE CENTRAL US
INTO EARLY/MID WEEK. A LARGER TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE SOME
WARMING AND MOVE TOWARD SOME SMALLER PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO
RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY WITH A LARGER STORM SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY NEARING THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY
BEFORE A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS (80-100% CHANCES FOR RAINFALL). MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL, ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS, ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS, CONTINUED TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS. IF A STORM BECOMES SEVERE, GUSTS CLOSER
TO 50 KNOTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ROCK RIVER FROM
COMO DOWN TO THE MOUTH.
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER IOWA RIVER
AT WAPELLO AND OAKVILLE ALONG WITH THE CEDAR RIVER NEAR
CONESVILLE.
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM MUSCATINE DOWN THROUGH BURLINGTON AND FOR GREGORY LANDING.
A RIVER FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
DUBUQUE.
DISCUSSION...
OVER THE PAST FIVE DAYS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE
IMPACTED EASTERN IOWA, NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RUN FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN; MUCH OF
THIS RAIN HAS BEEN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH AMOUNTS RUNNING FROM 1 TO 2 PLUS INCHES. WITH AREA
SOILS RUNNING FROM MOIST TO NEAR SATURATION, THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF INTO AREA WATERWAYS RESULTING IN
NEW OR INCREASED RIVER FLOODING ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING.
MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA,
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. RIVER BASINS
IMPACTED WOULD BE THE ROCK, LOWER IOWA, SKUNK, DES MOINES AND LA
MOINE.
ROCK RIVER...
BASED ON OVERALL RIVER FORECASTS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (>80%) THAT THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ROCK RIVER WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE BY THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
ROUTED FLOW FROM COMING DOWN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI,
WISCONSIN, ROCK, IOWA AND OTHER TRIBUTARY RIVERS WILL CAUSE
GENERAL RISES ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. BASED ON THE
CURRENT ROUTED FLOW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN, CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH (>80%) THAT THE MISSISSIPPI WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE FROM
MUSCATINE DOWN THROUGH KEITHSBURG AND AT GREGORY LANDING.
GLADSTONE AND BURLINGTON ARE ALREADY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND WILL
SEE ADDITIONAL RISES AS THE ADDITIONAL ROUTED FLOW ARRIVES OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
IOWA TRIBUTARY RIVERS...
RIVERS IN EASTERN IOWA ARE RUNNING HIGH FROM THE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE LOWER WAPSIPINICON RIVER
NEAR DEWITT AND THE IOWA RIVER ABOVE CORALVILLE NEAR MARENGO.
BASED ON ROUTED FLOW, THE LOWER CEDAR RIVER NEAR CONESVILLE WILL
GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE NORTH SKUNK RIVER NEAR SIGOURNEY IS FORECAST TO GO ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GENERAL RISES EXPECTED
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM AND ON THE SKUNK RIVER.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...MJB
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
HYDROLOGY...08
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