698
FXUS63 KDVN 180820
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MUCH COOLER WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS DIPPING TO THE 30S TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH.
- AREA RIVERS REMAIN ON THE RISE FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
REFER TO THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
AFTER A VERY ACTIVE WEEK OF SEVERE WEATHER, A MUCH CALMER WEEKEND IS
IN STORE FOR THE AREA - PERFECT TIMING TO HELP WITH POST-STORM CLEAN-
UP! THE LAST REMAINING BOUTS OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP TO THE EAST. COOLER AIR IS
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING (GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH). LOWS THIS
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DIP TO THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE I-380
CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 40S OVER WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS, SO IT WILL BE
A CHILLY MORNING.
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ONLY TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH - COOLER
THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY AROUND 10 DEGREES. THEN, A
CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S. WINDS DON'T GO ENTIRELY CALM TONIGHT, ALONG
WITH A LINGERING MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT COULD KEEP CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA AT TIMES, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE IS A BIT MORE
MARGINAL, ALTHOUGH THE NBM EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 50 TO 70% ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
SOME ISOLATED FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR NOW, AND LET THE DAY SHIFT EVALUATE
FURTHER.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/VORT MAXIMA IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD GENERATE SMALL CHANCES (10-30%) OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY AS RAIN, OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MOISTURE ALOFT IN
THE ICE BEARING LAYER MAY ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN, BUT
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW
REMAIN VERY LIMITED.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A NIGHT TO WATCH FOR MORE LIKELY FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA, AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD HELP SUPPORT EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE NBM PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 70 TO 100%!
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK, WITH LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PROGGED TO BUILD OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE (20% OR LESS) OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THIS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS PRETTY
FLEETING, SO NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS. AFTER A COOLER THAN
AVERAGE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM UP
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BY
WEDNESDAY.
FARTHER OUT IN TIME, THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS FAR OUT, THERE
IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION, BUT GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUGGESTS A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY FOR FRIDAY, AS A
COLD FRONT BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING,
HELPING TO SCOUR OUT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE EAST, AND
TURNING OUR WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING SATURDAY EVENING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
OVER THE PAST WEEK, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE IMPACTED
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN/WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE RUN FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES; MUCH OF THIS RAIN FELL
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
DUE TO THIS HEAVY RAINFALL, AREA RIVERS ARE RISING IN RESPONSE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MISSISSIPPI, WAPSIPINICON, IOWA, ROCK, AND
CEDAR RIVER BASINS. SEVERAL SPOTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED MINOR
FLOOD STAGE, WITH SEVERAL FORECAST TO GO TO MODERATE FLOOD,
ESPECIALLY ON THE ROCK AND THE MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI DOWNSTREAM
OF ROCK ISLAND LD 15. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY
EXACERBATE THESE RIVER FLOODING CONDITIONS.
MANY AREA RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, SO MAKE SURE TO BE AWARE OF IMPACTS FROM THE
FLOODING, INCLUDING WATER ON ROADWAYS OR AFFECTED LOCAL
INFRASTRUCTURE AND BUILDINGS. MOTORISTS SHOULD OBEY BARRICADES
AND NOT DRIVE AROUND THEM. ALSO, IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED
ROADWAY, TURN AROUND AND FIND ANOTHER ROUTE TO YOUR DESTINATION.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
HYDROLOGY...SCHULTZ/GROSS
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