556
FXUS63 KDVN 021114
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
614 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BLOCKED PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES AND FRONTS COMBINING WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY/HEATING TO PRODUCE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIP
IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
- WARM UP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BEFORE COOLING BACK DOWN INTO
MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN AND SLOW TO DISSIPATE ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-80, AND ARE HOLDING TEMPS UP AROUND 40 TO NEAR 45 DEGREES
IN MANY AREAS WHILE TO THE NORTH TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY
DROPPED INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN SOME FAVORED COOL DRAINAGE SITES
NEARING 32 DEGREES. ANTICIPATE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL
FOSTER A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK, AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO QUICKLY
DROP FROM THE 40S INTO THE 30S SOUTH. AS A RESULT, I HAVE LEFT
THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON FROST WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80.
OTHERWISE, TODAY IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS, AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 60 OR IN
THE LOWER 60S AS WINDS TURN WEST/SOUTHWEST BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
TONIGHT, A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA PROVINCES WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (20-40%) OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AM. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD LEAD
TO LOWS NOT AS COLD AND MOSTLY IN THE 40S. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE
TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE EXITING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY ANY LATE DAY SUNDAY AND
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH AN ISOLATED MARGINAL
SEVERE STORM RISK, TO OUR SOUTH INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A PUSH OF WARMER AIR ALOFT AND BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO
MID 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, AS AN OMEGA BLOCK BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS KEEPING OUR
REGION PREDOMINANTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGHING. WE'LL LOOK TO
STAY RATHER ACTIVE WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES BEING SHUTTLED DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE PREVAILING POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT ALSO FOSTERING INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AT TIMES. MONDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A DAY WITH A HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN A FEW STORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MODEST CAPE (1000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE) AND 30+ KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR COULD EVEN SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS WITH A
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND THREAT SOUTH OF I-80 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 ON MONDAY TO BACK BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 30S
FOR SOME FROST CONCERNS, BEFORE A GRADUAL WARM-UP OCCURS HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. AFTER 06Z/03 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO EAST IOWA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHRA. A BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ040>042-
051>054-063>068-076>078-087-088-098.
IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024.
MO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ009.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...08
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