422
FXUS63 KDVN 032342
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..00Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.
- AN OMEGA BLOCK ON THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER WARM-UP FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS (25-35 MPH) WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. A DRY AIR MASS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
MONDAY... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BAND OF SHEAR VORTICITY OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
RETROGRADING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST.
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL FORCE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS FORECASTED TO BRING HIGHS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW-80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEW
POINTS INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WELL-
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SUPPORTING
200-400 J/KG OF SBCAPE NORTH OF I-80 AND 500-1000 J/KG SOUTH. A
CAPPING INVERSION DUE TO RADIATION COOLING FROM THE NIGHT
BEFORE AND THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO THE MID-TO-
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS GOING TO ALIGNED WITH THE INSTABILITY LEVELS:
SCATTERED (30-40%) STORMS NORTH OF I-80, WITH HIGHER COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO THE SOUTH (50-70%).
SPC HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. PRIMARY THREATS REMAIN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER-SIZED HAIL. THE LIMITING FACTOR
WITH THIS SEVERE EVENT IS LACK OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA, THE ORGANIZATION OF THESE STORMS IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY AND EVOLVING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A STRONG SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY FLOW, GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT... COLD AIR ADVECTION, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
CALM AFTER SOME RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER, 5-10 MPH DURING
THE DAY AND SUBSIDING AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY-SATRUDAY... THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SITTING TO THE NORTH
OF US FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FINALLY SWING THROUGH.
WHILE SURFACE FORCING IS FORECASTED TO BE LIMITED, A 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER WISCONSIN AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT IS ALSO
FORECASTED TO KICK OFF A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 60S. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY FRIDAY MORNING, LEADING TO
A DRY START FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID-
60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
GENERALLY A VFR TAF CYCLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCTRD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20Z MON. SOME OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG WITH HIGH VARIABLE WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF PASSING
DOWNPOURS THAT MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. BACK
TO THE CURRENT, GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS JUST BEHIND A
PASSING FRONT WILL DIMINISH IN A FEW HOURS AND TREND BACK TO
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEY
THEN WILL INCREASE DIURNALLY BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL BRING A
WIND CHANGE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER THE TAF END TIME(MID
MONDAY EVENING).
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...DELAUNE
AVIATION...12
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