413
FXUS63 KDVN 060517
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1217 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING DUE TO WINDS AND
CLOUDS.
- PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 30.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A BRIEF
WEEKEND WARM-UP WILL BE FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY, WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING HIGHER
(40-50%) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CWA IN A SEMI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST KS. THIS WAVE IS
PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MO.
CLOSER TO HOME, DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND DEEP MIXING UP TO 850MB PER
OUR 18Z SOUNDING HAS KEPT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S TODAY.
THIS HAS ALSO KEPT ANY WETTING RAIN FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND I HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY STILL OCCUR IN WEST
CENTRAL IL, BUT NO APPRECIABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS, WITH
SLIGHTLY COLDER AND DRIER NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING INTO
THE CWA. RAP 500-300MB RH PROFILES SUGGEST HIGH CLOUDS TO REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND WITH NORTH WINDS OVER 5KTS, SO I AM NOT
ANTICIPATING A COMPLETE DROP IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT THAT WOULD
NECESSITATE A FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE. THAT SAID, SOME RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING DRAINAGE AREAS COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FROST
DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WEDNESDAY...A RATHER CHILLY EARLY MAY DAY IS ON TAP, WITH CONTINUED
CAA AND A MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S/50S OR
CLOSER TO EARLY APRIL STANDARDS. A COLD POCKET ALOFT, STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE COULD SEE SOME
DIURNAL CU AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, I HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER/INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. DEEP MIXING MAY ALSO BRING SOME
GUSTY WINDS OVER 20KTS AS WELL AND WILL PASS ON TO THE OVERNIGHT
SHIFT. IN ADDITION, ALL MODELS SHOW CLOUDS CLEARING AFTER SUNSET AS
A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS IA AND WINDS DIMINISH. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S, RESULTING IN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
RIVER VALLEYS. NBM PROBABILITIES OF TEMPS<32 DEGREES IS NOW
50-70% ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30. WHILE THIS IS NOT RECORD LOW
TERRITORY YET (UPPER 20S/30S), A FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE MAY BE
NEEDED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK, AS
CPC 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS 70% COMBINED PROBS OF
NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MILD
WEATHER TO THE AREA.
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY.
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE, AS THE CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED A
VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THIS LIMITED MOISTURE KEEPS
POPS AT 10% OR BELOW MENTION ON THURSDAY. GREATER CONFIDENCE
LIES IN FRIDAY'S PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30-40%) AS A PLUME OF
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH AN AMPLIFIED WAVE.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT, AS NBM PROJECTIONS
SHOW A <20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS.
SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW, BRINGING WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. FOLLOWING A
PLEASANT SATURDAY, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY (POPS 50-70%) WITH THIS SYSTEM,
GIVEN THE GREATER MOISTURE, BUT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK. RECENT TRENDS SHOW A SOUTHWARD SHIFT, WHICH
DECREASES THE AMOUNT OF OVERALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON MONDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL DRY AIR IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT A DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL DEFINED AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAS
TURNED WINDS TO A NORTHERNLY COMPONENT AND UNDER 10 KNOTS.
MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z/06. STARTING AROUND 00Z/07 WINDS
WILL AGAIN DROP TO UNDER 10 KNOTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH
AVIATION...08
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