378
FXUS63 KDVN 060708
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
208 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
- THE PROBABILITY OF FROST TONIGHT IS 50-60%. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT
THIS EVENING THEN FROST HEADLINES WOULD BE NEEDED FOR MOST
AREAS NORTH OF AN OTTUMWA, IA TO PRINCETON, IL LINE.
- DAILY DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW RAISES THE PROSPECTS
OF DIURNAL SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
KEEPING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL BREAK MID TO
LATE MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THE RESULT OF THE MIXING WILL BE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
TONIGHT WINDS BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP.
THE QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE FROST. THE KEY TO FROST WILL BE IF THE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. SOME SOLUTIONS SAY YES WHILE OTHERS SAY NO.
WILL PASS ON THESE CONCERNS TO THE NEXT SHIFT BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
FROST HEADLINES ARE 50-60% FOR TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...LOW CONFIDENCE (20-30%) ON RAIN CHANCES. A CERTAINTY
(>95%) OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THESE DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO BE STRONGER SO
IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE, ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED (20-30%) DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY OCCUR.
THE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FOR BOTH DAYS IS THE AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT
OCCURS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST PROFILES OF THE ATMOSPHERE
POINT TO GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING OCCURRING ON THURSDAY AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT ON FRIDAY. IF DEEP MIXING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE OCCURS, LOW
LEVEL HUMIDITY LEVELS WOULD AGAIN DROP THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY
RESULT IN NO SHOWERS OCCURRING. WITH THE PROGGED MIXING NOT AS GREAT
ON FRIDAY, SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. INTERESTINGLY, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BECOME FAIRLY STEEP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH RAISES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 15-25% POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRIDAY DISTURBANCE IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND HAS AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WITH IT. THUS THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS HIGHER
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES AT 25-50% WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI.
SATURDAY
ASSESSMENT...VERY HIGH (>90%) CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE AND
STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE OF TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL
THE FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. OVERALL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL BUT THE ADDITION OF A
WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 20-50% POPS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA WITH RAIN ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE, EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL BE 0.10 INCH OR LESS.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BE THE RELATIVELY COOLER TIME PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, THIS SYSTEM IS MORE MOISTURE
STARVED. WHILE THE GULF EVENTUALLY OPENS UP, ITS MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. THUS THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OVERALL POPS BEING JUST 20% FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAS
TURNED WINDS TO A NORTHERNLY COMPONENT AND UNDER 10 KNOTS.
MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z/06. STARTING AROUND 00Z/07 WINDS
WILL AGAIN DROP TO UNDER 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW DEEP MIXING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT, HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE 25-30% RANGE. IF THE MIXING IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN FORECAST,
HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD DROP TO 20-25%.
GIVEN THE GREEN-UP THAT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA, NO
ELEVATED FIRE RISK IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LOW
HUMIDITY AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH TODAY, ANY OUTDOOR
BURNING SHOULD BE DELAYED OR POSTPONED.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
FIRE WEATHER...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page