263
FXUS63 KDVN 071749
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1249 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS IN THE
CONVECTION MAY GUST UP TO 40 MPH. LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
- NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN LATE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
TREND ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS ENTERED NORTHWEST IOWA AND WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BECOME
STRONGER AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE ON
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
JET IS ALSO PROVIDING FAVORABLE LIFT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR.
THE OVERALL SET UP HAS SIMILARITIES TO LAST MONDAY. THE BIG
DIFFERENCE IS THAT DEW POINTS ARE 10-15 DEGREES LOWER; LOW TO MID
30S COMPARED TO MID AND UPPER 40S. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY
BUT I CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SEVERE STORM OCCURRING.
THE VERY SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE POSITION OF THE
OVERALL FORCING, BUT, THE GENERAL AREA BETWEEN HIGHWAY 30 AND NORTH
OF AN OTTUMWA, IA TO GALESBURG, IL LINE APPEARS FAVORED FOR THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES.
INVERTED V PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW 40 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE MOIST
LAYER. MIX-DOWN WOULD THEN SUPPORT GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH IN THE SHOWERS
AND ANY ISOLATED STORMS. SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION LOADING CAN OCCUR IN A
DOWNDRAFT.
TODAY WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER WINDY DAY AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING OF
THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURS. OVERALL GRADIENT WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND ANY STORMS WILL QUICKLY END LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE QUIET.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
FRIDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW (20-30%) CONFIDENCE FOR SOME RAIN
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY. CURRENTLY THE VARIOUS MODELS DO NOT SHOW A VERY STRONG
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE LONGWAVE TROF ON
THE EAST COAST SO SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.
OVERALL, MOISTURE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ROUGHLY THE SAME AS
THE ONE ON THURSDAY. LIKE THURSDAY, THE PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE AN
INVERTED V SO MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT WOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.
INTERESTINGLY, SEVERAL MODELS HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS ATOP THE MIXED
LAYER. IF THIS IS CORRECT, THEN WINDS FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING NOT AS
STRONG.
THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>95%) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. DEEP MIXING OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AND DROP HUMIDITY
LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF WIND, WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 25-30% COULD RESULT IN PROBLEMS
FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CONFIDENCE ON SOME RAIN
OCCURRING.
THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TREND ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN TO THE SOUTH GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BETTER
FORCING AND THUS RAIN CHANCES ARE ACROSS MISSOURI, BUT, SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ARE YIELDING A 20-40% CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT SUITE OF
MODELS HAVE A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS WITH A NORTHWARD JOG IN THE TRACK
WHICH IS CAUSING THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF.
INTERESTINGLY, THE ECMWF-AIFS AND AIGFS ARE COMPLETELY DRY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. I SUSPECT THE NORTHWARD JOG WITH THE TRACK IS
AN ANOMALY AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL SHIFT THE RAIN CHANCES
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK AS ANOTHER COOL HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW TO MEDIUM (25-50%) CONFIDENCE ON SOME RAIN
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A WEAK BUT RESPECTABLE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SPREAD ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LARGE BUT THE TIMING SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR ANY RAIN IS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SURFACE LOW TO IT WHICH WILL HELP IN THE
PRODUCTION OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE IT HAS IS LIMITED
AS THERE IS NO CONNECTION TO THE GULF. THUS WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE
OF RAIN, AREAS NORTH OF I-80 WOULD HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES.
RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 30-50% CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE
ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. RISING HEIGHTS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES SIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN SPITE
OF THE NORTH WINDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF UPDATE CONTINUES TO BE
ON A LINE OF SHOWERS, RANGING FROM KGGI EASTWARD TOWARD KVYS
(ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR). ALTHOUGH RAINFALL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LIGHT, RESULTING IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY, SOME LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THIS COULD RESULT IN SURGING
AIR FROM THE CLOUD BASES DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED TODAY, AND
THIS THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IF MIXING INCREASES FURTHER, SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KNOTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ALSO, AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT EITHER, WHICH COULD
ALSO RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS, ALONG WITH HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE VERY
ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS STORM POTENTIAL, WE HAVE LEFT OUT THIS
MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW. THE SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, MAINLY NEAR MLI BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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