748
FXUS63 KDVN 081745
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..18Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED IN A
NARROW BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA TODAY.
- A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY MORNING IS FORECASTED TO BRING
SCATTERED (30-70%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A RATHER MOISTURE STARVED, BUT ACTIVE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SET
UP OVER OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING, AS SOME RIPPLES OF ENERGY STREAM
IN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SMALL SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN IN THE F-GEN BAND
NEAR I-80 EARLY THIS MORNING, AND HAVE BEEN FESTERING SINCE LAST
EVENING, WHILE MOVING EAST, ALONG AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR. THE FOOTPRINT OF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY
SMALL, BUT WE'VE SEEN SOME AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY NEAR 0.20 FROM THESE
SHOWERS IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN A FEW ROUNDS. SO FAR, MOLINE
(KMLI) HAS SEEN THE MOST AS OF 1 AM, WITH 0.15" MEASURED.
THIS F-GEN BAND SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH TODAY,
AND INITIALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS FORCING WANES, BUT WE'RE
SEEING ANOTHER WAVE UPSTREAM IN NE EARLY TODAY, THAT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE ZONE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, AND I EXPECT
COVERAGE TO TICK UP AGAIN THEN, BUT BY THAT TIME, THIS BAND SHOULD
BE MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS BAND WILL BE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN
THE SOUTH 1/2 OF THE AREA TODAY, THOUGH THAT DOESN'T MEAN COLD, BUT
RATHER HIGHS NEAR 70S, VS THE POTENTIAL OF MID 70S IF THE CLOUD
COVER WERE LESS CONSISTENT. IF THE BREAK IN RAIN DOES OFFER MORE SUN
TO SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY, WE COULD REACH 75 THERE, WHILE A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS WILL MORE CONFIDENTLY BRING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 TODAY. WITH WSW WINDS AROUND 7 TO 10
MPH, THIS WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA,
DESPITE SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTH.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A BIT MORE MILD AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, AND DESPITE CLEARING SKIES, LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
SATURDAY... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA WILL
DIVE TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES, DEEPENING A LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ISOLATED (10%) LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND LOW-80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS GUSTS
COULD EXCEED TO 35 MPH ALONG THE FRONT.
SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATES
SOUTHWARD, AN F-GEN BAND AT 700 MB WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN SUNDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. ONCE
THESE SHOWERS MOVE OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE DRY UP AS NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
A HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID-60S TO
LOW 70S WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID-40S SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE PATTERN SHIFTS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES IN.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DIVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
AND RIDGING WILL ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER EASTERN IOWA,
WISCONSIN, AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM PUSHES
INTO MINNESOTA. THE LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL RESPONSE WILL ALSO BE
STRONG WITH A 850-700 MB F-GEN BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA, WAA
AT 850 MB AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IS THE LACK OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
A NARROW BAND OF HIGH 700 MB RH. LREF CURRENTLY HAS A 70%
SPREAD ON 700 MB RH VALUES TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION (0.2 TO 0.4
INCHES) MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS, BUT THE SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH UNDERNEATH
THE PASSING 500 MB TROUGH AXIS COULD SUPPORT SOME RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES.
THURSDAY... A LITTLE DEJU VU FROM MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS TO THE EAST,
SETTING UP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER IOWA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS, BUT THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE POSITION OF THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH A 10-DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACCORDING TO THE LREF.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
GENERALLY ANOTHER VFR TAF FCST THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. BOUTS OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACRS THE AREA WITH DRY LLVL'S, AND
WILL BANK ON THE ONGOING SHOWERS STAYING SOUTH OF THE BRL SITE
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPPING DOWN ACRS MN AND WI
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES TO SKIRT ACRS
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN
ONGOING DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL AIRMASS MAY KEEP MOST OF THAT
PRECIP IN VIRGA FORM AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP IN THE
TAFS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A SFC TROF
PASSAGE, BUT THEN BACK AGAIN TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS AGAIN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND THEY MAY GUST OVER 20 KTS INTO SAT
AFTERNOON.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...DELAUNE
AVIATION...12
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