597
FXUS63 KDVN 090731
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
231 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG TODAY.
- MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH.
- A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IS FORECASTED TO BRING SCATTERED (30-70%) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
- WARM UP EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH 40-
60% CHANCE OF HIGHS IN THE 80S NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A WEAK FRONT IS SETTLING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME MID CLOUDS AND VIRGA HAS BEEN
SEEN THERE OVERNIGHT, BUT THIS IS MAINLY A TRANSITION TO LOWER DEW
POINT AIR AND A POTENTIAL FOR COOL MORNING LOWS IN THE NORTHWEST.
TO THE SOUTH, THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS MAINLY KEEPING OUR CWA
CLEAR AND QUIET OVERNIGHT, BUT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH, PORTIONS OF
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS ARE SEEING SOME FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND
THIS WILL BE WATCHED THIS MORNING IF DENSE FOG CAN SPREAD NORTHWEST
INTO OUR COUNTIES. IF IT DOES, AN ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED FOR A FEW
HOURS, MAINLY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
TODAY WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST AND WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY ARRIVING THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE 12 TO 18 MPH RANGE BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WON'T FEEL TOO
COLD, AS THIS DEEPLY MIXED AIR WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE
LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S/LOW 80S IN THE SOUTH 1/2. THE GREEN-UP
IS WELL UNDERWAY IN ALL COUNTIES, THUS THE MINIMUM RH UNDER 30
PERCENT SHOULD NOT BE PROBLEMATIC.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED ALOFT TODAY, AND THIS BOUNDARY SEEMS
UNLIKELY TO BRING ANY WETTING RAINS, BUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTH. SOME THUNDER IS
TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME SOUTH AROUND MID AFTERNOON, BUT
THIS LIMITED POSSIBILITY AND FOOTPRINT WITHIN OUR COUNTIES WILL KEEP
OUR MESSAGING LIMITED REGARDING THAT.
TONIGHT, AFTER CLOUDS PASS THROUGH IN THE EVENING, OVERNIGHT
CLEARING AND CAA WILL BRING LOWS BACK TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
NORTH, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SUNDAY-MONDAY... AFTER ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY,
MOTHER'S DAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE
ONLY NUISANCE IN THE FORECAST IS SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30
MPH DURING THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S, LEADING TO A
COOL START TO MONDAY MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S AND
LOW 70S ON MONDAY, BUT THIS DOES NOT LAST LONG AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SO DOES THE WIND TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, MODERATING
LOWS (40S AND LOW 50S) AND BRINGING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TUESDAY MORNING, ENHANCING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT UNDERNEATH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. A
RELATIVELY STRONG 850-700 MB F-GEN BAND SETS UP OVER EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA BEFORE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS, PRODUCING A SHIELD OF LIGHT-TO-MODERATE
STRATIFORM RAIN. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, A NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS COLD DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80; HOWEVER, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE WITH
THE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. REGARDLESS OF
STORMS, WINDS ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE WILL ADVECT IN COLD AND DRY AIR. LOWS ARE GOING TO DROP
INTO THE 50S AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO MID-80S ON TUESDAY. THERE
IS A 10-20% AT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-60S AND MID-70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY... A HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY THURSDAY AS
LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR WEST. THIS ALL SHIFTS THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS KICKS THE RIDGE
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, TURNING THE SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. SINCE THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE WELL AMPLIFIED, PROPAGATION
SPEED OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECASTED TO BE SLOW, KEEPING POPS AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
DETERMINE IF THERE IS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THE MAIN HEADLINE
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS THE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH THE LREF
CURRENTLY HAVE 40-60% CHANCES OF HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE 24-HOUR PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WITH A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN WESTERLY THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE
PICKING UP AND SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS 7 KFT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...DELAUNE
AVIATION...DELAUNE
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