162
FXUS63 KDVN 231713
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND RAIN CHANCES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RAP MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS
A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN SD, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH TOWARDS SIOUX FALLS AND OMAHA. AREA RADAR MOSAICS SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVER WESTERN IA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. EARLIER LAST EVENING, TWO TORNADO WARNINGS WERE
ISSUED IN WESTERN IA WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CLOSER TO HOME, AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S.
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON PRECIP CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
TRACK EAST OVER IA TODAY, WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT. BUILDING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND A FORCING MECHANISM (FRONT) ERODING ANY
CIN WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR AFTER 18Z TODAY. MOST 00Z CAMS SUPPORT THIS WITH SOME OF
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS HAVING SCATTERED COVERAGE
(NAMNEST,FV3,RRFS) LIKELY DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TDS TODAY. VERY
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR DISPLACED TO OUR
NORTHWEST SHOULD PREVENT ANY SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION, 0-1 KM
SRH VALUES ON THE 00Z HREF ARE PROGGED AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE
LOWER THAN THOSE THAT OCCURRED IN WESTERN IA LAST EVENING, SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LOW LEVEL STRETCHING/TORNADO THREAT AT THIS
TIME. THOSE THAT DO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY, COULD SEE A NICE
0.50" RAIN AND THE 00Z HREF 3-HR QPF PMM WOULD FAVOR SOUTH OF
I-80 FOR THIS TO OCCUR. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE MUCH LESS THAN
THIS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND
HAVE LOWERED THEM SLIGHLY INTO THE UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEK TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND GOING INTO MEMORIAL DAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE
FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY. GREAT WEATHER FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES!
TUESDAY ONWARD, A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING US THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER THERE REMAINS QUITE THE MODEL SPREAD ON
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, TIMING, AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGEST
FORCING. IN ANY CASE, THE LATEST NBM 72-HR QPF PROBS FOR >0.25" IS
NOW IN THE 50-70% RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WHICH IS 10-20%
HIGHER THAN ITS PREVIOUS 06Z RUN. HOPEFULLY THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS WE COULD USE MORE RAIN. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES,
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK, LEADING TO ANOTHER DRY PERIOD AND CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE (10-30%
CHANCE) FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON COVERAGE AND IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS, PROMPTING PROB30
GROUPS FOR EACH. THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BRIEF CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS TO MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS, WITH WINDS BEHIND WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS. 00Z THIS EVENING AND BEYOND, WE
WILL SEE WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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