117
FXUS63 KDVN 231900
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
200 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THROUGH ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS, WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW, WHERE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TRENDING UPWARDS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR US.
MEMORIAL DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK BEAUTIFUL, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
- MIDWEEK, A SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH, BRINGING OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SURFACE LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WE HAVE SEEN MOISTURE INCREASE, WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LOW, AS MOISTURE STILL REMAINS LIMITED OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ASIDE FROM LIGHTNING AND A BRIEF BOUT OF RAINFALL, WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH ELSE FROM THIS. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS
BETTER CHANCES OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE DAY, OWING TO
ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE. AFTER THIS FRONT
PASSES, WE WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH,
WITH CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOO MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S FOR MOST TONIGHT, WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BREEZE.
SUNDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL
BE SEEN AFTER ANY REMNANT AM CLOUD COVER MOVES EAST, WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE LOW 80S. OTHERWISE, A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BREEZE WILL BE FELT. ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAY!
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE MEMORIAL DAY FORECAST LOOKS TO BE QUITE BEAUTIFUL FOR THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA, WITH LLVL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING TEMPERATURES, WITH MID 80S FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
ASIDE FROM A BREEZE AND PASSING CLOUDS, IT IS GEARED TO BE A NICE
MEMORIAL DAY.
TUESDAY ONWARD, A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD GOING INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING US
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER THERE
REMAINS QUITE THE MODEL SPREAD ON AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE,
TIMING, AND THE LOCATION OF STRONGEST FORCING. IN ANY CASE, THE
LATEST NBM 72-HR QPF PROBS FOR >0.25" REMAINS IN THE 50-80%
RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I- 80, WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES, AN
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK, LEADING TO ANOTHER DRY PERIOD AND CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE (10-30%
CHANCE) FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON COVERAGE AND IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS, PROMPTING PROB30
GROUPS FOR EACH. THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BRIEF CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS TO MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS, WITH WINDS BEHIND WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS. 00Z THIS EVENING AND BEYOND, WE
WILL SEE WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GROSS/GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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