604
FXUS63 KDVN 242233
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
533 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A BEAUTIFUL MEMORIAL DAY IS AHEAD OF US, WITH SOME PASSING
CLOUDS, A SOUTHERLY BREEZE, AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.
- TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARDS GOING INTO MIDWEEK, NEARING THE
UPPER 80S FOR SOME. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REMAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, LARGELY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL LIMIT HOW FAR THIS
SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL WORK INTO THE AREA, BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR
NORTHWEST WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY DECAYING SHOWERS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. OTHERWISE, PASSING CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER
50S.
MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST, WITH US FALLING UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM
THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM PASSING NORTH, WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS, WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES INCREASE A BIT, WITH BETTER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FAVORING STRONGER WAA. IN ALL, IT WILL BE A PLEASANT
MEMORIAL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S, PASSING CLOUDS,
AND SOUTHERLY BREEZE. ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAY!
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE TWO BLOCKING PATTERNS, WITH THE FIRST TAKING
SHAPE SIMILAR TO A REX BLOCK UNTIL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITHIN THE
DEEPENING RIDGE THAT TAKES SHAPE, WE WILL HAVE A CUTOFF LOW OR SLOW
MOVING UPPER WAVE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY TRAVERSE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PULLING THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND FORCING NEAR OUR SOUTH. PREVIOUS GLOBAL
MODEL RUNS HAVE BROUGHT THIS INTO OUR AREA, BRINGING POPS TO MOST
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ALTHOUGH, MORE RECENT RUNS ARE
SHOWING THE DEEP RIDGE AND UPPER HIGH KEEPING THIS UPPER LOW SHUNTED
FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS BEING SHUNTED SOUTH, IT WILL DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES AS FAR NORTH AS INITIALLY ADVERTISED. THIS HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH THE LATEST NBM RUNS, KEEPING 20-40% POPS FOR AREAS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR. IF THIS SOUTHERLY TREND
CONTINUES, THOSE AREAS MAY EVEN BE LUCKY TO SEE PRECIPITATION.
OVERALL, IF THE PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA, THIS WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE FORM OF A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND <0.25". WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY ONWARD, WE CONTINUE TO SEE AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL US. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE
EAST/WEST FROM RUN TO RUN. EARLY ON, GENERALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WE WILL FALL UNDER THE DEEPENING UPPER RIDGE. THIS SHOULD LARGELY
KEEP US UNDER EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW, WHICH SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING THROUGH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATER ON FRIDAY, PROMPTING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
AT THE SAME TIME, A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY SET UP WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA WILL ALSO PROVIDE AN AXIS OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. AGAIN,
WE HAVE UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO MOISTURE. THUS, WILL STICK THE NBM
OUTPUT, KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20-40%. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING A CONTINUATION
TO THE QUIET WEATHER, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS DUE TO WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS IN GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF MN/SE SD/W IA/NE IS
LIKELY TO APPROACH CID/DBQ MONDAY WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH A
VEERING AND DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL JET. ANTICIPATE POTENTIALLY SOME
HIGH BASED SHOWERS NEAR CID AND DBQ ROUGHLY 14Z-18Z MONDAY, BUT WITH
VFR VISIBILITY AND THUS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT, PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
ON MONDAY, THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH SPORADIC
GUSTS TO 20 KT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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