218
FXUS63 KDVN 251848
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
148 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY AHEAD OF US ON TUESDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED. AREAS ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY,
OWING TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
SEEN, BUT WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET. FROM THERE,
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AROUND 60. GOING THROUGH TOMORROW,
WE WILL SEE WEAK FLOW OVERHEAD DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE. WITH THIS
IN PLACE, WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. BY MIDDAY, WE WILL START TO SEE SOME CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. THESE WILL
GENERALLY BE HIGH CLOUDS, WHERE WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SUN
SHINING THROUGH. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH, DECREASING OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THUS, WE ARE EXPECTING TO REMAIN DRY THOUGH THE NIGHT,
WITH <15% CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR SOUTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A FEW MINOR CHANGES FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NNW OVER MO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO AN OMEGA BLOCK BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH THIS LOW.
HOWEVER, 1000-500MB RH PROGS SHOW BETTER MOISTURE DEPTHS TO BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH OVER MO. THIS RESULTS IN LOWER QPF
PROBABILITIES (NBM NOW LESS THAN 15% FOR >0.1" QPF) AND HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES, THE ENTIRE AREA MAY BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THE
ONLY CAVEAT IS PROSPECTS OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THAT 'MAY' BRING SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS BUT A VERY
DRY BL COULD KEEP THIS AS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE WOULD FAVOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATION. CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THESE SHOWERS PROGRESS
SOUTH.
THURSDAY ONWARD...PERSISTENT OMEGA BLOCK TO BECOME FURTHER
ENTRENCHED AS THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE (584 DAM PER LREF)
BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR THE US-CANADA BORDER. THIS UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGE (2.5 SIGMA OR NEAR 99TH PERCENTILE PER CLIMO) TO BRING
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF MAY. AS WAS NOTED
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, THE DRY TREND CONTINUES, WITH OUR
POPS PRETTY MUCH BECOMING <20% THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
DOESN'T BODE WELL FOR THE AG COMMUNITY AS WE COULD SURE USE THE RAIN
FOR THE RECENTLY PLANTED CROPS. ALL OF EASTERN IA, NORTHWEST IL, AND
NORTHEAST MO HAS RECEIVED LESS THAN 60% OF NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE
PAST 30 DAYS. IN FACT, ROCKFORD, IL AND MILWAUKEE, WI WILL SEE A TOP
3 DRIEST MAY IF THEY RECEIVE NO MORE RAIN FOR THE MONTH WHICH IS
LOOKING VERY PROBABLE.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD BRING A CONTINUATION TO THE QUIET WEATHER, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONTS, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DUE TO WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS
IN GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z,
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. OTHERWISE, NO SIG
WX IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GROSS/GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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