779
FXUS63 KDVN 261134
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED. AREAS ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE COMING WEEKS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN
NEBRASKA ROUNDING THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ANOTHER LLJ
AROUND 40KTS AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PER SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS
MAINTAINED SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NE AND
NORTHWEST IA. CLOSER TO HOME, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE SEEN WITH
1AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
ANOTHER EARLY MORNING OF WATCHING SHOWERS/STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY
TRACK EAST OVER IA IS FORECAST AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND STORMS
MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT. 00Z HREF 4-HR MAX
REFLECTIVITY PROGS HAVE THIS IDEA AND I HAVE KEPT A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN IA, NORTHWEST IL, AND
NORTHEAST MO WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE LOW 50S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US MIXING SIMILAR TO OUR
00Z SOUNDING LAST EVENING (UP TO 800MB), YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10
MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH AND DRY LOW LEVELS TO BRING CONTINUED MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER MN COMBINED WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E TEMPERATURES TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO FORM TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN
MN AND TRACK SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, MOST 00Z CAMS AND INSTABILITY
PROGS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE REACHING OUR
NORTHERN BORDER. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW
60S.
WEDNESDAY...ASIDE FROM LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING, ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S MAY MAKE IT FEEL A TAD MORE HUMID OUTSIDE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF MAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 1ST WEEK OF JUNE. THE ONLY
CAVEAT IS PROSPECTS OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT
'MAY' BRING SOME SPRINKLES, BUT A VERY DRY BL WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN (OMEGA BLOCK) WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGE (2.5 SIGMA OR CLOSE TO THE MAX PERCENTILE PER
NAEFS/ENS) NEAR THE US-CANADA BORDER TO SUPPORT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
DRY FORECAST. NBM OUTPUT HAS NOW REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS (>15%)
FROM THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND WPC 7 DAY QPF HAS DROPPED TO ZERO FOR THE
CWA. ENSEMBLE 50TH PERCENTILE TOTAL QPF SOLUTIONS ALSO HAVE COME
DOWN FURTHER AND NOW ALL SHOW LESS THAN 0.10" QPF THROUGH JUNE
4TH! GIVEN THE DRY GROUND (LESS THAN 60% OF NORMAL RAINFALL IN
PAST 30 DAYS) THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING/WORSENING OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. TIME TO START
WATERING YOUR MAY FLOWERS.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES, WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
ALBEIT A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE CURRENT WORK WEEK. QUITE THE NICE
END TO THE MONTH OF MAY!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA, LEADING TO
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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