507
FXUS63 KDVN 261814
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
114 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT WARM AFTERNOONS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE FOR
MANY DAYS AHEAD.
- AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 20 MAY SEE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE COMING WEEKS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THIN HIGH CLOUDS, WE'RE SEEING A VERY DRY AIR
MASS WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE, AND DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, WE'RE
ALREADY WARMED TO THE LOWER MID 80S AS OF 1 PM. SURFACE DEW POINT
VALUES ARE VERY LOW, IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THOUGH WEDNESDAY, KEEPING
THESE CONDITIONS RATHER CONSISTENT FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
SCATTERED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH SOME SPRINKLES OR
WEAK SHOWERS COULD DRIFT AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20 TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
THE WARM, DRY AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
MORNING LOWS OF THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, TO REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MUCH LIKE
TODAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT, AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR DEW POINT
VALUES WILL CRASH FURTHER WITH THIS PUSH OF AIR, FALLING TO THE 40S
AREA-WIDE, AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. LOWS SHOULD FALL TO THE MID
50S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
PROSPECTS FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY BENEFICIAL RAIN OVER 0.5", ARE
BLEAK LOOKING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND.
THIS IS ONLY WORSENED BY OUR DRY AIR MASS AFFECTING THE REGION,
WHICH WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BELOW 30% OF MOST
AFTERNOONS IN THE WEEK AHEAD. THAT SAID, THIS AIR MASS WILL BE
QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR BEING OUTSIDE, THOUGH WARM IN THE
AFTERNOON, THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
MOST NIGHTS AHEAD THIS WEEK. THIS IS ALL DUE TO A BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME.
PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN (OMEGA BLOCK) WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGE (2.5 SIGMA OR CLOSE TO THE MAX PERCENTILE PER
NAEFS/ENS) NEAR THE US-CANADA BORDER TO SUPPORT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
DRY FORECAST. NBM OUTPUT HAS NOW REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS (>15%)
FROM THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND WPC 7 DAY QPF HAS DROPPED TO ZERO FOR THE
CWA. ENSEMBLE 50TH PERCENTILE TOTAL QPF SOLUTIONS ALSO HAVE COME
DOWN FURTHER AND NOW ALL SHOW LESS THAN 0.10" QPF THROUGH JUNE 4TH!
GIVEN THE DRY GROUND (LESS THAN 60% OF NORMAL RAINFALL IN PAST 30
DAYS) THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING/WORSENING OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. TIME TO START WATERING
YOUR MAY FLOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND VFR / CLEAR WEATHER
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF DBQ THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN/GROSS
AVIATION...ERVIN
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