757
FXUS63 KDVN 271818
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
118 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT WARM AFTERNOONS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE FOR
MANY DAYS AHEAD.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE COMING WEEKS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH ANOTHER SET
TO RE-ENFORCE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS IS
PROVIDING A PLEASANT, BUT STAGNANT SITUATION TODAY, AS WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS, THIN AC,
AND PATCHY CIRRUS DOTTING THE OTHERWISE CLEAR SKY. AS OF 1 PM,
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME SITES MAKING A
RUN AT 90 TODAY.
LOOKING TO THE NORTH, THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT, A LACK OF DYNAMICS
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THEM FROM MOVING INTO OUR COUNTIES
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY FROPA, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH LAKE ENHANCED NE WINDS BEHIND THE BACK
DOOR FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING EVEN DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION, AS DEW POINTS FALL TO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR TOMORROW.
HIGHS IN A DRY, AND VERY PLEASANT THURSDAY ARE SET TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 80S, WITH DEEP MIXING. HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP BELOW 30
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MUCH LIKE TODAY AND FREQUENTLY
IN OUR FORECAST IN THE WEEK AHEAD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
PLEASANTLY COOL (WINDOWS OPEN?) NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS CUT OFF FROM EASTERN
IOWA/NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS EACH NIGHT
LOOK TO FALL TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS IN THIS DRY AIR AND
AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL RISE QUICKLY TO THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S ON EACH
DAY AHEAD THIS WEEK.
AN OMEGA BLOCK IS SET TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH DAY 7,
AND POTENTIALLY WELL INTO JUNE, IN WELL SUPPORTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE,
AS WELL AS DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC. THIS STABLE PATTERN
WILL FEATURE CUT OFF LOWS IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS/CANADA,
WITH A EXCEPTIONALLY LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO
THROUGH LAKE HURON CANADA. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHEN DOES THIS
OMEGA BLOCK BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN? LATEST ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS PATTERN
BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED THIS WEEKEND AND PERSISTING IT THROUGH
AT LEAST JUNE 2ND. THEN THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE UPPER
FLOW TO A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE CONUS, WHICH IS NOT IDEAL FOR ANY
BENEFICIAL RAIN. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP/EXPAND
OVER THE COMING WEEKS. IN ADDITION, THE LATEST 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PRECIP OUTLOOKS FOR THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAVE 70-80%
COMBINED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR/BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION GOING
THROUGH THE 1ST WEEK OF JUNE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, IT WILL BE A WHILE
BEFORE LIQUID GOLD (RAIN) COMES BACK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES VFR OR CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24+
HOURS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, SWITCHING THE
WINDS FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE, TO PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEAST JUST
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT / UNLIMITED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN/GROSS
AVIATION...ERVIN
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