325
FXUS63 KDVN 290608
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
108 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT WARM AFTERNOONS AND COOL MORNINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY RAIN.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND PERSISTING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
06Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RAP ANALYSIS HAS 1021MB HIGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING IN SUB 50
DEGREE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE CWA. WATER VAPOR AND GOES
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB CHANNEL SHOW A DECENT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FEED ACROSS WESTERN MO UP INTO THE DAKOTAS, WITH
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IA, NORTHWEST IL, AND
NORTHEAST MO. TEMPERATURES AT 1 AM RANGED FROM 68 DEGREES IN
BURLINGTON TO 53 DEGREES IN FREEPORT, WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE
CALM UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHEAST IA, WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS FURTHER NORTHEAST OVER
EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOTHER DAY
OF DEEP MIXING SHOULD YIELD SIMILAR HIGHS TO YESTERDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN MO WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
ENOUGH SATURATION WILL BE THERE TO SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR RAIN (<30%)
OVER NORTHEAST MO. ANY RAIN THAT ACTUALLY REACHES THE SURFACE
WILL BE MINIMAL, LIKELY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA
DRY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
OMEGA BLOCK BECOMES FULLY ESTABLISHED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/50S CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY
WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TWO WEAK IMPULSES TO LIFT OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
VERY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN (<30%) TO AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
BELLE PLAINE TO KEOKUK. MOST OF THIS WILL LIKELY BE VIRGA AND IF
ANY PRECIP REACHES THE SURFACE AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.
LATEST ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE SHOW THE
OMEGA BLOCK REMAINING THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ACROSS THE CONUS. BEYOND THIS,
THE MT/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN UPPER LOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
TRANSITIONING THE PATTERN TO SEMI-ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS.
WHILE THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS OF JUST HOW MANY WAVES (00Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS SEVERAL), THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK, ALBEIT NOT LIKELY BENEFICIAL RAIN. PRIMARY STORM
TRACK AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN MN/WI. LATEST NBM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
(THROUGH 12Z FRI 6/5) ARE QUITE CONCERNING WITH AREAS SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM PELLA TO MT PLEASANT LINE ONLY RECEIVING 0.10" OR
LESS RAINFALL WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH OF THIS LINE. AS A
RESULT, THE RECENTLY RELEASED D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY EXPAND/WORSEN IN
THE COMING WEEKS.
LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY, ANOTHER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME
HEAT TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CPC DAY 8-14 HAZARD OUTLOOK HAS A
MODERATE RISK (40-60%) FOR EXTREME HEAT JUNE 6TH-8TH ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80. THE LATEST CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOKS HAVE 85-90% COMBINED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE JUNE 5TH-11TH TIMEFRAME. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL WITH NBM TD PROBS >60 DEGREES IN THE
60-80% RANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS NEAR BRL LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY UNDER 12 KTS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...GROSS
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