857
FXUS63 KDVN 300536
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT WARM AFTERNOONS AND COOL MORNINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAINING LOW AND CONFINED
TO WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THE MOST PART.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND PERSISTING THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
TODAY'S SURFACE MAP AND SATELLITE/RADAR LOOK JUST ABOUT IDENTICAL TO
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVER OUR CWA
WHILE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN A STEADY STREAM OF DRY AIR.
THE COOL MORNING TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HAS WARMED
TO THE LOWER 80S AS OF 1 PM. MEANWHILE, WEST OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER
OUR AREA, IS A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS, ARE FOUND
IN THAT AREA. FOR OUR CWA, CLOUDS AND SOME VIRGA ARE BEING SEEN,
WITH OTHERWISE PLEASANT SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTDOORS.
MODELS ARE NOW OFFERING LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME
REGARDING THE UPPER HIGH POSITION, AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCE.
SOME MODELS HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH THE UPPER HIGH, ALLOWING THE
MOISTURE PLUME TO SPREAD OVER OUR WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE MANY OTHER DETERMINISTIC DO NOT
MOVE THIS UPPER HIGH, AND KEEP OUR CWA ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
THIS HAS MODEL SPREAD HAS RESULTED IN CHANCE POPS SPREADING EAST
INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT, SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY, AS THE NBM BLEND INCORPORATES SOME OF THAT DATA. I HAVE
TRIMMED THE POPS WEST INITIALLY, GIVEN THE EASTERLY FLOW HOLDING
INSTABILITY VERY LOW, BUT LATER PERIODS OF SUNDAY AND BEYOND
ARE NOT TOUCHED. QPF REMAINS VERY LOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER 0.10 IN ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD
IN THE WEST, AND A TRACE TO 0.01 FARTHER EAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
LATEST ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE SHOW THE
OMEGA BLOCK REMAINING THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ACROSS THE CONUS. BEYOND THIS, THE
MT/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN UPPER LOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
TRANSITIONING THE PATTERN TO SEMI-ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS.
WHILE THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS OF JUST HOW MANY WAVES (00Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS SEVERAL), THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK, ALBEIT NOT LIKELY BENEFICIAL RAIN. PRIMARY STORM TRACK
AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST IN MN/WI. LATEST NBM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS (THROUGH 12Z
FRI 6/5) ARE QUITE CONCERNING WITH AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PELLA
TO MT PLEASANT LINE ONLY RECEIVING 0.10" OR LESS RAINFALL WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH OF THIS LINE. AS A RESULT, THE RECENTLY
RELEASED D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER IOWA AND
ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY EXPAND/WORSEN IN THE COMING WEEKS.
LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY, ANOTHER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO
THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. CPC DAY 8-14 HAZARD OUTLOOK HAS A MODERATE RISK
(40-60%) FOR EXTREME HEAT JUNE 6TH-8TH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE
LATEST CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS HAVE 85-90%
COMBINED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE JUNE
5TH-11TH TIMEFRAME. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL WITH
NBM TD PROBS >60 DEGREES IN THE 60-80% RANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS HE AREA WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS. EAST WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 14
UTC WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WIND DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER
00 UTC BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. LOW CONFIDENCE
REMAINS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS AT KCID AND KBRL WITH THIS ISSUANCE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE TAFS
ONCE AGAIN.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...COUSINS
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