515
FXUS63 KDVN 131951
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING (4-10
PM). LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREATS. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS.
- ROUNDS OF COLD FRONTS PUSHING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR
SEASONALLY COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN 50S TO LOW
60S.
- THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY BUT
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AS WAVE ENERGY ARRIVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
IT APPEARS THERE MAY ONLY BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCTRD SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACRS THE AREA UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL JET(LLJ) AND APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROF/MCV ACRS FAR SOUTHWEST IA/NW MO EDGES CLOSER. THIS
MAY PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 7 OR 8 PM ON THE
INCOMING MAIN FRONT AS WELL AS LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM PRODUCING 60 MPH WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL, BUT IT MAY BE MORE OF A MARGINAL SET-UP AS OPPOSED
TO THE ONGOING SLIGHT RISK. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL STILL BE A
FACTOR AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SLOW OR REPEATED STORM MOVEMENT
ACROSS RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HARD HIT AREAS. AREAS SOUTH OF I-80
STILL APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORM CELLS THIS EVENING
UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND MIDNIGHT/1 AM WHEN THEY SHOULD CLEAR OFF TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.
COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW/COOLER ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW
60S IN THE SOUTHEAST, TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST.
SUNDAY TO BE A BREEZY POST-FRONTAL DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WITH EXTENT OF LOWERED THICKNESSES ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA, EVEN DEEP MIXING SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. DO EXPECT SOME AMBIENT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN COVERAGE WHICH MAY MAKE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 70S AS
OPPOSED TO SOME MID 70 VALUES. SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A CLEAR OUT AND SFC WIND
DECOUPLE...LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO EVEN SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH.
MAY HAVE TO KEEP SOME VALLEY AND GROUND FOG IN MIND FOR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMP-WISE(MID TO UPPER 70S)
AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS A BROAD, DEEP UPPER TROF SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EVENTUALLY THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THROUGH OUR REGION, IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE OUR FORECAST WILL REMAIN A COOLER THAN NORMAL, THIS ENERGY
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH AMOUNTS OF CAPE ARE CERTAINLY
NOT EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST FLOW IN JUNE CAN OFTEN BRING HAIL
THREATS IN STORMS, DUE TO THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS A THREAT IN THE EXTENDED, BUT IN GENERAL, THIS WEEK
OFFERS LESS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT DISTANCED
RATHER FAR AWAY FROM THE REGION, AND EACH PASSING WAVE WILL SHUNT
THIS SOUTHEAST BEFORE IT TRIES TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. IT
DOES LOOK ACTIVE, BUT THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK FOR HEAVY RAINS, IN MISSOURI AND POINTS SOUTH.
HIGHS IN THE 70S THURSDAY MAY MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW COVERAGE/ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE (10-20%). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS (50-80%) WITH EMBEDDED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS NEAR BRL. BRIEF IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND STORMS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SW/W TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND LINGERING STRATUS
CLOUDS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR (FAVORED AT BRL) INTO SUNDAY
AM.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN/12
AVIATION...UTTECH
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