630
FXUS63 KDVN 132334
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING (4-10
PM). LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREATS. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS.
- ROUNDS OF COLD FRONTS PUSHING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR
SEASONALLY COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN 50S TO LOW
60S.
- THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY BUT
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AS WAVE ENERGY ARRIVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
IT APPEARS THERE MAY ONLY BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCTRD SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACRS THE AREA UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL JET(LLJ) AND APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROF/MCV ACRS FAR SOUTHWEST IA/NW MO EDGES CLOSER. THIS
MAY PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 7 OR 8 PM ON THE
INCOMING MAIN FRONT AS WELL AS LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM PRODUCING 60 MPH WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL, BUT IT MAY BE MORE OF A MARGINAL SET-UP AS OPPOSED
TO THE ONGOING SLIGHT RISK. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL STILL BE A
FACTOR AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SLOW OR REPEATED STORM MOVEMENT
ACROSS RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HARD HIT AREAS. AREAS SOUTH OF I-80
STILL APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORM CELLS THIS EVENING
UNTIL POSSIBLY AROUND MIDNIGHT/1 AM WHEN THEY SHOULD CLEAR OFF TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.
COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW/COOLER ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW
60S IN THE SOUTHEAST, TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST.
SUNDAY TO BE A BREEZY POST-FRONTAL DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WITH EXTENT OF LOWERED THICKNESSES ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA, EVEN DEEP MIXING SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. DO EXPECT SOME AMBIENT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN COVERAGE WHICH MAY MAKE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 70S AS
OPPOSED TO SOME MID 70 VALUES. SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A CLEAR OUT AND SFC WIND
DECOUPLE...LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO EVEN SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH.
MAY HAVE TO KEEP SOME VALLEY AND GROUND FOG IN MIND FOR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMP-WISE(MID TO UPPER 70S)
AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS A BROAD, DEEP UPPER TROF SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EVENTUALLY THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THROUGH OUR REGION, IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE OUR FORECAST WILL REMAIN A COOLER THAN NORMAL, THIS ENERGY
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGH AMOUNTS OF CAPE ARE CERTAINLY
NOT EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST FLOW IN JUNE CAN OFTEN BRING HAIL
THREATS IN STORMS, DUE TO THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS A THREAT IN THE EXTENDED, BUT IN GENERAL, THIS WEEK
OFFERS LESS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT DISTANCED
RATHER FAR AWAY FROM THE REGION, AND EACH PASSING WAVE WILL SHUNT
THIS SOUTHEAST BEFORE IT TRIES TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. IT
DOES LOOK ACTIVE, BUT THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR
A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK FOR HEAVY RAINS, IN MISSOURI AND POINTS SOUTH.
HIGHS IN THE 70S THURSDAY MAY MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST,
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCTRD THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF IT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR
SO. FURTHER NORTH IT WILL BE MORE POST-FRONTAL TYPE LIGHTER
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE CID AND DBQ SITES THIS EVENING. WIND
TRENDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF I-80, AND THEN
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AT CID AND DBQ AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND THE FROPA OCCURS. THUS VARYING BOUTS OF VFR TO
IFR WITH THESE TRENDS AND BRL THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO GET
IMPACTED BY STRONGER STORMS MID TO LATE EVENING AND BOUTS OF
REDUCED VSBYS AND POSSIBLE VARYING HIGHER WIND GUSTS. LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
TAKES OVER WITH NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 KTS, VSBYS AND
CIGS WILL ALL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS. SUNDAY WILL BE A MAINLY VFR
DAY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.
EXPECT AMBIENT CU TO FORM TO SCT AND BKN COVERAGE LEVELS, BUT
SHOULD BE AT VFR HEIGHTS BY THE TIME THEY DO. WINDS TO START TO
DROP OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ERVIN/12
AVIATION...12
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