442
FXUS63 KDVN 142324
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
624 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..00Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL COLD FRONTS PUSHING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAKE
FOR SEASONALLY COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN 50S TO
LOW 60S.
- THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY BUT
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AS WAVE ENERGY ARRIVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM THE
LOWER 70S/UPPER 60S INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, LOW HUMIDITY (DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S/50S), AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AM
- 9 AM ON TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE, EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
FOLLOWING THE CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY MORNING, WEDNESDAY BRINGS
HIGHER CHANCES FOR NOT ONLY RAIN, BUT ALSO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. DUE TO A LIMITED PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN HOW MUCH
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
SHOWING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 70S SOUTH OF
I-80. THIS, COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE MID- AND LOW- LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS, SUGGESTS THAT IF THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. GREATER CLARITY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY,
WILL HELP ESTABLISH THE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, A QUIETER PERIOD IS IN STORE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BLOCK MOISTURE FROM THE GULF FOR A FEW
DAYS BEFORE SOME MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY, WITH
THIS BEING THE NEXT POTENTIAL PERIOD FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS AND MO RVR
VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND BACK TO
THE WEST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
CELLULAR CU DEVELOPMENT BUT NOT NEAR THE EXTENT IT WAS TODAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH/UTTECH
AVIATION...12
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