167
FXUS63 KDVN 150750
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
250 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL COLD FRONTS PUSHING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAKE
FOR SEASONALLY COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN 50S TO LOW
60S.
- SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 0.10
INCHES EXPECTED.
- A SEASONABLY STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
34, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF
5) RISK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA. FURTHER UPSTREAM, A SECOND SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TOGETHER, THESE WAVES WILL SHAPE MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE FIRST WAVE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BY 7 AM TODAY, WILL
PROVIDE A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE, TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE COOL AND DRY ONCE
AGAIN AS WE SIT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
TONIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE,
CURRENTLY OVER THE PNW, PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT (AROUND 4
AM) WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 3 - 9 AM
TIMEFRAME TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH THERE REMAINS THE QUESTION OF
MOISTURE RETURN. GUIDANCE SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE IN ND/MN, WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MO/KS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS THIS MOISTURE
FROM ENTERING THE CWA, INSTEAD PUSHING IT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS
A RESULT, FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE,
WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A 70-85% CHANCE OF LESS THAN 0.10
INCHES OF RAIN, AND SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN IOWA, MAY
SEE NO RAIN. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE, TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BEING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS A DYNAMICALLY STRONG SYSTEM
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH A SEASONABLY
STRONG 500 MB JET OF 65+ KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS,
COMBINED WITH A STRONG 850 MB JET, WILL PROVIDE A HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH OVER 60 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THIS WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE
RETURN OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
PWATS OF 1.5 - 2.0 MOVING INTO THE AREA. ON TOP OF THIS HIGHLY
SHEARED AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8+ DEGC/KM
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A DYNAMICALLY CHARGED AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT, SPC HAS
AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 34, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2
OF 5) RISK.
HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE MOST
LIKELY LIMITER TO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE MOISTURE RETURN. WHILE THE
MODELS SUGGEST A LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE REGION,
THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTING LATITUDE OR SPEEDING UP/SLOWING DOWN COULD
LIMIT HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. GUIDANCE AGREES
LARGELY ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA, WITH A FEW PULLING IT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE IOWA-
MINNESOTA BORDER. WITH THIS TRACK, IF THE SYSTEM WERE TO SPEED UP,
THE AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE WOULD TILT EASTWARD, LEAVING THE
GREATEST MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY,
INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY, WILL
BECOME MORE APPARENT AS WE APPROACH WEDNESDAY.
PAST WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE CALMER AS WE RETURN TO THE
BACKGROUND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST, INTERRUPTED
BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IF WE HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN. OTHERWISE, WE
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS AND MO RVR
VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WESTERLY OF VARIABLE SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE THEY INCREASE SOME BY LATE MONDAY MORNING TO
AROUND 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE CELLULAR CU DEVELOPMENT BUT
NOT NEAR THE EXTENT IT WAS TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHILE THE SFC WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE DIURNALLY MONDAY EVENING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELLINGWORTH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH
AVIATION...12
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