311
FXUS63 KDVN 151854
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
154 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL COLD FRONTS PUSHING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAKE
FOR SEASONALLY COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN 50S TO LOW
60S.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED.
- A SEASONABLY STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
34, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF
5) RISK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN
3 AM - 9 AM ON TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME-
HEIGHT SECTIONS. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE JUNE DAY WITH
BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS (GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH) AND HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR SEVERE STORMS BEING ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN STORY IN THE
LONG TERM IS A DYNAMICALLY STRONG SYSTEM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG 500 MB JET
OF 65+ KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS, COMBINED WITH A
STRONG 850 MB JET, WILL PROVIDE A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
OVER 60 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE, SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
35-40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE RETURN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING PWATS OF
1.5- 2.0 MOVING INTO THE AREA. ON TOP OF THIS HIGHLY SHEARED AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT, MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8+ DEGC/KM SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A DYNAMICALLY CHARGED AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT, SPC
HAS AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK.
HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE MOST
LIKELY LIMITER TO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE MOISTURE RETURN. WHILE THE
MODELS SUGGEST A LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE REGION,
THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTING LATITUDE OR SPEEDING UP/SLOWING DOWN COULD
LIMIT HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. GUIDANCE AGREES
LARGELY ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA, WITH A FEW PULLING IT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE IOWA-
MINNESOTA BORDER. WITH THIS TRACK, IF THE SYSTEM WERE TO SPEED UP,
THE AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE WOULD TILT EASTWARD, LEAVING THE
GREATEST MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY,
INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY, WILL
BECOME MORE APPARENT AS WE APPROACH WEDNESDAY.
PAST WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE CALMER AS WE RETURN TO THE
BACKGROUND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST, INTERRUPTED
BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IF WE HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN. OTHERWISE,
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STEADY WEST WINDS
TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF LLWS
IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM,
WITH 40-45 KT WSW WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z-13Z/TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION; COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LOW WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED DUE TO DRY LOW-LEVELS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH/UTTECH
AVIATION...UTTECH
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