035
FXUS63 KDVN 152353
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
653 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL COLD FRONTS PUSHING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAKE
FOR SEASONABLY COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN 50S
TO LOW 60S.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED.
- A SEASONABLY STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 34, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN
3 AM - 9 AM ON TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME-
HEIGHT SECTIONS. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE JUNE DAY WITH
BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS (GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH) AND HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR SEVERE STORMS BEING ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN STORY IN THE
LONG TERM IS A DYNAMICALLY STRONG SYSTEM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG 500 MB JET
OF 65+ KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS, COMBINED WITH A
STRONG 850 MB JET, WILL PROVIDE A HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
OVER 60 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE, SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
35-40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE RETURN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING PWATS OF
1.5-2.0 INCHES MOVING INTO THE AREA. ON TOP OF THIS HIGHLY
SHEARED AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8+
DEGC/KM SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A DYNAMICALLY CHARGED AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS A
RESULT, SPC HAS AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK.
HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE MOST
LIKELY LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE MOISTURE
RETURN. WHILE THE MODELS SUGGEST A LARGE POOL OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE REGION, THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTING LATITUDE OR
SPEEDING UP/SLOWING DOWN COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH MOISTURE REACHES
THE AREA. GUIDANCE AGREES LARGELY ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WITH A FEW PULLING IT
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE IOWA-MINNESOTA BORDER. WITH THIS TRACK,
IF THE SYSTEM WERE TO SPEED UP, THE AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE
WOULD TILT EASTWARD, LEAVING THE GREATEST MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY, WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT AS WE
APPROACH WEDNESDAY.
PAST WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE CALMER AS WE RETURN TO THE
BACKGROUND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST, INTERRUPTED
BRIEFLY BY A SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IF WE HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN. OTHERWISE,
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALONG THE
FRONT, A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED AS WINDS AROUND 2KFT STRENGTHEN. ADDITIONALLY, SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, WHICH MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
GENERATE HIGH-END MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. MODEL ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST LOWER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL (AROUND 30%), SO
CONTINUED USING PROB30 GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TIMING AND
IMPACTS OF THESE SHOWERS. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH QUICKLY,
LEADING TO WINDS TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENING
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH/UTTECH
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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