966
FXUS63 KDVN 162347
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
647 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT/ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 2/3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE, LASTING THROUGH MID
MORNING.THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL.
- LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR MORE SEVERE STORMS, WITH THE WHOLE
AREA UNDER A SEVERE THREAT RANGING FROM A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) IN OUR NORTHWEST TO A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4 OF 5) IN
OUR SOUTHEAST.
- HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS LATE TONIGHT, BUT ESPECIALLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATING ROUNDS OF STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECENTLY
SAW HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS IN
WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
- QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH THE PATTERN BECOMING ACTIVE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN INTO THIS EVENING AS WEAK RIDGING PASSES
OVERHEAD BEHIND THE PASSING SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
BE COOLER THROUGHOUT, WITH MID 50S FORECAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO INCREASING MOISTURE, AS A POTENT WAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NAEFS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO BE AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM,
INDICATING THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH QUITE THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG
SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, WE WILL SEE A STRONG LLJ AROUND 45-55
KTS CONVERGING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON THE STORM POTENTIAL, WHERE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE
FAVORED. ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, WE ARE IN FOR A WINDY
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. WE CAN
SEE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 30-40+ MPH,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-80. BELOW, WE WILL DIVE INTO THE
TIMING, ENVIRONMENT, AND EXPECTED HAZARDS WITH THE SEVERE
STORMS.
BULK OF THE ENERGY AND FORCING MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND NEAR SUNRISE
ON WEDNESDAY. PRIOR TO STORMS DEVELOPING, WE CAN SEE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH, AROUND THE 4-6AM
TIMEFRAME, WE WILL SEE STORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOP DUE TO STRONG FORCING.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 55-65 KTS AND MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 BY 7AM
WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. STORM MODE IS UNCERTAIN, AS GUIDANCE INDICATES MIXED-MODE
CONVECTION, WHERE SUPERCELLS (EMBEDDED OR SEMI-DISCRETE) WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER LARGELY STABLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING, THE MAIN HAZARD SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL. A LOOK AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL AIR ALOFT
FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IN AREAS, WHICH IS ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED BY MODEL ANALOG SOUNDINGS. IF WE GET MORE OF AN MCS
STORM MODE, THEN WE WILL ALSO SEE A WIND THREAT AS WELL. PWATS
BETWEEN 1.25-1.50" (75TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY) WILL ALSO RESULT
IN HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. ANY AREAS THAT SEE REPEATING ROUNDS OF
STORMS WILL HAVE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THAT SAID, WE ARE IN FOR A STORMY MORNING COMMUTE.
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR MAY SEE A BREAK FROM THE
STORMS MID MORNING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON ROUND, WHILE LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-80 HAVE THE CHANCE TO SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM NORTHWEST IOWA. THIS
WILL PASS THROUGH WITH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. AS THIS MOVES IN, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP BETWEEN 12-2PM. THIS WILL BE PASSING DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH
EVEN STRONGER SHEAR, RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. THESE LOOK TO DEVELOP LARGELY IN COUNTIES ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST. WITH SUCH AN
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, SUPERCELL STORMS ARE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE,
WHICH MAY DEVELOP IN A DISCONNECTED LINE ALONG THE PASSING COLD
FRONT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR ALL HAZARDS, BUT THERE WILL BE
A PARTICULAR FOCUS ON THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND BACKED WINDS OUT AHEAD OF
THE STORMS WILL FAVOR A TORNADO POTENTIAL, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG. THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER, ESPECIALLY THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE ENVIRONMENT
OVERHEAD WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL, WITH MODEL
ANALOGS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR >2" HAIL. THIS SECOND ROUND
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND NOON LOCAL TIME, AND GENERALLY
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 5-7PM. COVERAGE WILL START OUT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG/EAST OF THE RIVER. STAY WEATHER AWARE ALL DAY!
ONCE AGAIN, THESE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY PWATS UPWARDS TO 1.75-2.00" (90-
99TH PERCENTILE, NEARING DAILY MAX), WHICH IS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER AREAS THAT SAW RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. WPC HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. WHEN ALL
IS SAID AND DONE, WE ARE SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.50-2.00"+ OF
RAINFALL FOR THE WHOLE EVENT, WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
CURRENTLY FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
PAST WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE CALMER AS WE RETURN TO THE
BACKGROUND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, BUT THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO
RETURN AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN IS A TYPICAL MCS PATTERN WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL
WOULD BE FAVORED BY SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. HIGH
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN, AS WELL AS A
SEASONAL/TYPICAL WIND THREAT WITH ANY ZONAL MCS PATTERN. WPC IS
ALREADY HIGHLIGHTING OUR REGION WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IN
THE LATER WEEKEND TO EARLY WEEK NEXT WEEK.
ERVIN
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KNOTS WITH SUNSET AND
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST PRIOR TO 12Z/17. AFTER 09Z/17 WINDS
ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO OVER 40 KNOTS RESULTING IN LLWS ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ELEVATED STORMS WILL RACE
THROUGH THE AREA RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS. BY 18Z/17 CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR ILZ009-016>018.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08
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