204
FXUS63 KDVN 181748
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..18Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE PATTERN
BECOMING ACTIVE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
WEDNESDAY'S POTENT SHORTWAVE IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WITH A COLD FRONT NOW WELL
TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. PAST SUNRISE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OUR
SOUTH, MAINTAINING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A MOSTLY COOL AND CLOUDY
DAY CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A SMALL DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW. CALMER WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 50S OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WE STAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. FORCING AHEAD
OF AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
TOWARDS EVENING, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING OUR NEXT MEASURABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW OFF THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AS PWATS OF 1-2 INCHES FLOOD NORTHWARD.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT SUNDAY, WITH NBM
PROBABILITIES SHOWING A 50-70% CHANCE OF 24-HOUR RAINFALL
EXCEEDING 1 INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME INSTABILITY WITH THESE SHOWERS, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING MAKE SEVERE POTENTIAL UNCLEAR, BUT IS
SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
PAST SUNDAY, RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP US IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-JUNE AS IT
LINGERS IN PLACE FOR A DAY OR TWO UNTIL MIDWEEK. BY MIDWEEK,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH A WIDE
RANGE OF SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING SOME THAT KEEP HIGH PRESSURE ROOTED
OVER US, KEEP THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MAINLY A VFR TAF CYCLE THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. AFTER THE AMBIENT
CUMULUS HAS LIFTED TO VFR HEIGHTS, THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE IF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCTRD SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM GET
INTO THE VCNTY OF CID LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MID
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN ACRS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TRENDS SUPPORT NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF 10-15 KTS THEN TRENDING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY SUNSET AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS DOWN OUT OF THE
NORTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELLINGWORTH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH
AVIATION...12
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