886
FXUS63 KDVN 190523
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BESIDES A FEW NUISANCE LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY
EVENING, GENERALLY COOLER AND BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE STORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.
- THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME STILL LOOKS TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
TONIGHT...LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY(WV), A FEW CHANNELED
LOOKING SHORT WAVES WERE NOTICE EMBEDDED IN LOW AMPLITUDE
NORTHWESTERLIES ACRS SD INTO WESTERN IA ATTM. THESE WAVES MAY
COMBINE WITH LATE AFTERNOON HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WDLY
SCTRD HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH
MID EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST MN DOWN ACRS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IA, AND
WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL. THEN A BOUT OF SHORT WAVE
UPPER RIDGING TO BRING ABOUT CLEARING AND CALM CONDITIONS LATE NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO COOL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN
DOWN IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY...WITH A PASSING BOUT OF RIDGING, MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE
DECENT WITH LESS CU THAN TODAY(THU) AND WARMING PROFILES FOR HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THEN ONGOING
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER ANOTHER CLIPPER-LIKE
WAVE DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACRS MN/WI(WESTERN GRT LKS)
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS LIMITED, BUT
APPEARING TO BE A LITTLE MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE ON THE ENSEMBLES, IT
SHOULD STILL KICK UP SCTRD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACRS MN
INTO WI LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY GET DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT(TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS)
AND BESIDES MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL, THE STORM SUPPORT IS NOT SEVERE
LOOKING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING OUR NEXT MEASURABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
LOW OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL PROVIDE A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE AS PWATS OF 1-2 INCHES
FLOOD NORTHWARD. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY, WITH NBM PROBABILITIES SHOWING A 50-70% CHANCE OF
24-HOUR RAINFALL EXCEEDING 1 INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY WITH THESE SHOWERS, WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, THE TRACK OF
THE LOW AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING MAKE SEVERE POTENTIAL UNCLEAR,
BUT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
PAST SUNDAY, RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP US IN NORTHWEST
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-JUNE AS IT
LINGERS IN PLACE FOR A DAY OR TWO UNTIL MIDWEEK. BY MIDWEEK,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH A WIDE
RANGE OF SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING SOME THAT KEEP HIGH PRESSURE ROOTED
OVER US, KEEP THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH A MID DECK
AT 11000 FT AND A CU DECK AT 5000 FT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 17Z/KCID TO 19Z/KBRL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 20Z/19 TO 02Z/20
WINDOW, WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN ANY
SHOWERS THAT PASS THROUGH CID/DBQ/MLI.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH
AVIATION...ELLINGWORTH
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