045
FXUS63 KDVN 190703
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
203 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH A SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2+ INCHES ARE
LIKELY (50-80%) SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20, WITH UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
GREATEST RAINFALL WILL BE.
- COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WE STAY UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING. THE FIRST OF THESE IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AFTER PRODUCING AN ISOLATED BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE LAST NIGHT. AS IT EXITS, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PLEASANT MORNING. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MIDDAY, AT WHICH POINT A DIURNAL DECK OF CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. BY LATE AFTERNOON,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AND LAST
THROUGH LATE EVENING, PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE, WITH A 60-70% CHANCE OF RAINFALL NOT
EXCEEDING 0.10 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE HEAVY SHOWERS.
SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANT BUT COOL
DAY FOR MID-JUNE, WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
AND LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WAA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING IN MOISTURE,
THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL REACH THE
REGION. THIS IS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS, WITH THE GREATEST BEING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND A POTENTIAL MCS.
GUIDANCE FALLS INTO TWO POTENTIAL SCENARIOS REGARDING THIS: ONE WITH
THE TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI (IMPACTS GREATEST
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80), AND THE OTHER WITH THE TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA (IMPACTS GREATEST AREA-WIDE).
WITH BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE PRIMARY
QUESTION BEING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. NBM
PROBABILITIES HAVE A 50-80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH
THE BLENDED NATURE OF THE NBM COMBINES THE TWO POTENTIAL SCENARIOS.
THE AREAS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, AS HEAVY RAIN IN THIS AREA WILL BE A GIVEN
WITH EITHER SCENARIO. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ON SUNDAY.
A SECONDARY QUESTION IS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, AND WITH THAT,
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR TO HEAVY RAINFALL, THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. MEANWHILE, SEVERE RISKS APPEAR MORE
CONDITIONAL, WITH THE GREATEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY KEPT TO
OUR SOUTH IN BOTH SCENARIOS. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK
AND TIMING, THIS REMAINS ONE AREA TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
PAST MONDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE,
MAINTAINING OUR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE. WITH THIS COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH A MID DECK
AT 11000 FT AND A CU DECK AT 5000 FT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 17Z/KCID TO 19Z/KBRL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE 20Z/19 TO 02Z/20
WINDOW, WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN ANY
SHOWERS THAT PASS THROUGH CID/DBQ/MLI.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELLINGWORTH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH
AVIATION...ELLINGWORTH
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