712
FXUS63 KDVN 191725
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH A SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE
LIKELY (50-80%) SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20, WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
WHERE THE GREATEST RAINFALL WILL BE.
- COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WE STAY UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING. THE FIRST OF THESE IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AFTER PRODUCING AN ISOLATED BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE LAST NIGHT. AS IT EXITS, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PLEASANT MORNING. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MIDDAY, AT WHICH POINT A DIURNAL DECK OF CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. BY LATE AFTERNOON,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN AND LAST
THROUGH LATE EVENING, PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE, WITH A 60-70% CHANCE OF RAINFALL NOT
EXCEEDING 0.10 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE HEAVY SHOWERS.
SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANT BUT COOL
DAY FOR MID-JUNE, WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
AND LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WAA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING IN MOISTURE,
THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL REACH THE
REGION. THIS IS DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS, WITH THE GREATEST BEING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND A POTENTIAL MCS.
GUIDANCE FALLS INTO TWO POTENTIAL SCENARIOS REGARDING THIS: ONE WITH
THE TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI (IMPACTS GREATEST
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80), AND THE OTHER WITH THE TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA (IMPACTS GREATEST AREA-WIDE).
WITH BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE PRIMARY
QUESTION BEING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. NBM
PROBABILITIES HAVE A 50-80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH
THE BLENDED NATURE OF THE NBM COMBINES THE TWO POTENTIAL SCENARIOS.
THE AREAS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, AS HEAVY RAIN IN THIS AREA WILL BE A GIVEN
WITH EITHER SCENARIO. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ON SUNDAY.
A SECONDARY QUESTION IS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, AND WITH THAT,
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR TO HEAVY RAINFALL, THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. MEANWHILE, SEVERE RISKS APPEAR MORE
CONDITIONAL, WITH THE GREATEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY KEPT TO
OUR SOUTH IN BOTH SCENARIOS. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK
AND TIMING, THIS REMAINS ONE AREA TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
PAST MONDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE,
MAINTAINING OUR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE. WITH THIS COMES
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD COME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
(30-60% CHANCE). HREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO HAVE THE
HIGHER CHANCES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH, POSSIBLY IMPACTING CID
AND DBQ, AND THESE HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN. WITH THAT, WE HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGHER CHANCES THERE. SOME MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS FOR A TIME BEFORE SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELLINGWORTH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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