289
FXUS63 KDVN 191911
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
211 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS (30-60%) AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
TONIGHT, LEADING TO A DRY DAY SATURDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3+ INCHES ARE LIKELY (50-80+%) SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 30, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.
- COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WE STAY UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITH THESE
SHOWERS, THANKS TO LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS BELOW 700 MB
PER THE LATEST HRRR, RAP, AND RRFS SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST DVN 19.18Z
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN, SO THIS
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO DO SOME WORK TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR HERE.
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UNDER THESE SHOWERS, OWING
TO THE DRIER PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 30
MPH POSSIBLE. WE'RE ALSO NOT OUTLOOKED FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY, SO LIGHTNING APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING TAKES ITS
PLACE. THIS RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT A PRETTY PLEASANT DAY OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S - PRETTY SEASONAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER, THINGS LOOK TO BE MORE ACTIVE FOR SUNDAY,
WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS ON A RATHER WET
SYSTEM THAT'S EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE, WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI OR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA (SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK REMAINS). THE EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE AREA OF RAINFALL WILL
REACH, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR AT
LEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE
THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH VALUES BETWEEN 1.5"
UP TO 2.0" ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THESE VALUES WOULD
BE ABOVE 98 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY PER THE NAEFS ENSEMBLES, SO THIS
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY MOIST SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. WE ARE JUST BEGINNING TO GET INTO RANGE OF THE REFS ENSEMBLE,
AND ITS 24-HOUR PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEAN QPF VALUES THROUGH 00Z/7 PM
MONDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IS AROUND 1-3 INCHES. GIVEN
THAT OUR CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES FOR THESE AREAS, THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN THIS SET-UP, WPC HAS EXPANDED THE
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FARTHER NORTH, NOW
OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA. IF THIS TREND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES, WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. AT THE VERY LEAST, THIS
SHOULD EXACERBATE OUR ONGOING FLOODING OVER AREA RIVERS.
IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE STORM THREAT WITH SUNDAY'S ACTIVITY, THERE
APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF INSTABILITY PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE (ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE REFS). HOWEVER, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VALUES APPEAR TO BE DECENT, WITH VALUES AROUND 40-50 KNOTS, SO SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE, AND SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS (SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34) IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5). IT DOES SEEM THAT THE HIGHER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE TO OUR SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
ACTIVE TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS A FEW UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS (20-50%).
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THESE DAYS APPEAR VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, THANKS TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REMAIN COMFORTABLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS WARMING TO
THE 70S FOR MOST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD COME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
(30-60% CHANCE). HREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO HAVE THE
HIGHER CHANCES OF STORMS TO THE NORTH, POSSIBLY IMPACTING CID
AND DBQ, AND THESE HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN. WITH THAT, WE HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGHER CHANCES THERE. SOME MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS FOR A TIME BEFORE SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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