649
FXUS63 KDVN 051139
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
639 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A LOW RISK FOR FUNNEL
CLOUDS PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- DRYING OUT AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO START THE WORK WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID-WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
AFTER AN ACTIVE AND WET START TO THE MONTH, MUCH QUIETER
CONDITIONS WERE SEEN EARLY SUNDAY ALBEIT STILL QUITE HUMID
OUTSIDE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THREE WEAK SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST, WITH THE STRONGEST OVER NORTHWEST IA. THIS WAVE
COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG A 700-850MB
MOISTURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. RECENT
RADAR TRENDS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY ALREADY WEAKENING OVER NORTHWEST
IA. CLOSER TO HOME, HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
KEEPING ANY FOG FORMATION AT BAY FOR THE MOMENT. AN ISOLATED
ROGUE SHOWER HAS ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR CEDAR RAPIDS.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, A MUCH WELCOMED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS FOR
MOST TODAY, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SHORTWAVE OVER MO WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. TAKING A DEEPER DIVE INTO PRECIP CHANCES, WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ATOP BUILDING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES
THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING A LOW RISK FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS. A
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT WAS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN IA YESTERDAY
WHERE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS WERE RECEIVED. THE 05Z RAP NST
PARAMETER MAXIMIZES AROUND 3 RIGHT OVER EASTERN IA NEAR THE MS
RVR EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL IL. IF ANY WERE TO
OCCUR, THEY WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED BUT SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DECREASE AROUND SUNSET, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MONDAY-TUESDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO BRING
DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH A LAKE BREEZE INTO AT LEAST NORTHWEST IL
PROVIDING MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ON
MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW 594 DAM
UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD OVER AZ AND SOUTHERN CA
RESULTING IN A FLATTENING RIDGE. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO TRACK
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORM POTENTIAL THAT COULD EVENTUALLY REACH
THE NORTHERN CWA. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLE, WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. A COOL FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BRING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCES (40-70%) OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP THAT WILL BE FURTHER FINE TUNED IN LATER
FORECASTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...THE 00Z GEFS/GEPS/ENS ALL SHOW THE WESTERN
RIDGE BUILDING/STRENGTHENING OVER THE ROCKIES LEADING TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS ALSO ARE COOLER THIS WEEKEND
THAT COULD RESULT IN A RATHER PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT
RAINFALL, COUPLED WITH LINGERING FIREWORK SMOKE AND BL
COOLING IS SUPPORTING POCKETS OF HAZE AND FOG AND MVFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE EXPECTATION
IS FOR IMPROVEMENT TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR TODAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM NNE AT 5-11 KT. THERE IS SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF KBRL
TOWARD 15Z AND THEN NEAR TO EAST OF THE RIVER SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOWER COVERAGE (20% OR LESS)
CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AT A TERMINAL IS TOO LOW FOR ANY
MENTION AT THIS TIME. FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
MAINLY AFTER 06Z. SOME IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY POTENTIAL
EXISTS, BUT BEING LATE IN THE PERIOD AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXTENT OF THE FOG I'VE OPTED TO KEEP VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR FOR NOW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WIDESPREAD 48-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES WERE COMMON
ACROSS CENTRAL IA NORTHEAST TOWARDS WATERLOO. SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 9 INCHES WERE REPORTED PARTICULARLY IN THE
HEADWATERS OF THE SKUNK RIVER. THESE AMOUNTS FELL IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN MOST OF THE
IOWA TRIBUTARY RIVERS IN EASTERN IA. THANKFULLY, MOST OF THE
POINTS IN EASTERN IA WERE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE PRIOR TO THIS
RAIN AND WITHIN BANK RISES ARE FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE IOWA RIVER AT MARENGO AND THE WAPSI RIVER NEAR DE WITT.
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT WITH A MAJOR FLOOD FORECAST FOR DE
WITT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS. NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK, SO ROUTED FLOW WILL BE FORECAST.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...MCCLURE
HYDROLOGY...GROSS
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