096
FXUS63 KDVN 061721
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1221 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE
WORK WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
- BUILDING HEAT THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WERE SEEN EARLY MONDAY,
WITH READINGS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 DEGREE RANGE AND WITH
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND HAS KEPT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY FOR
NOW. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE HAS A COMPACT UPPER LOW SLOWLY
DROPPING SOUTH NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER THAT WILL KEEP ANY
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS TO MAKE
FOR A RATHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO KEEP A DRY EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION ADVECTING IN SOME DRIER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY, WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS ALSO EXPECTED ONCE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS ACHIEVED, WITH THE 00Z RRFS/00Z HREF
KEEPING ANY SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL IL. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S.
TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS AND NEAR CALM WIND IS FORECAST
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR THE 1ST
TIME SINCE JUNE 27TH. WITH THESE LOWS JUST BELOW CROSSOVER
TEMPS, SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
LITTLE CHANGE NOTED TO THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED. A PERSISTENT
COMPACT UPPER LOW TO REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THURSDAY, WITH THE LOCAL
AREA TRANSITIONING TO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT, THE COOL FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS SLOWED DOWN
RESULTING IN NBM POPS DECREASING THROUGH 06Z THU COMPARED TO OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALSO MORE
FAVORABLE NORTH AND WEST OF US WHICH LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE RAIN
FORECAST THURSDAY. ONE THING THAT IS BECOMING CERTAIN IS THE RETURN
OF 70+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS THURSDAY ONWARD WITH NBM PROBABILITIES
NOW OVER 60% AREA-WIDE. HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHOWN BY THE ENS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS IS
PROGGED THURSDAY NIGHT TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING
LIKELY POPS INTO THE FORECAST TO END THE WORK WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. WITH ANOTHER HIGH PW/MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT,
CSU/MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE FOR SEVERE IS VERY LOW AND
INCONSISTENT BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
BEYOND FRIDAY, ALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW A LARGE
ANOMALOUS 598 DAM 500MB RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND WITH THE MATURING CROPS
ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE ATMOSPHERE, WE COULD SEE
MORE HEAT HEADLINES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST CPC DAY 6-10
DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS 85% COMBINED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR-
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
VERY QUIET, MAINLY VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME VALLEY/RIVER FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING,
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN THIS PAST MORNING IN THE HOURS JUST
AFTER SUNRISE. WHILE THIS WILL BE CERTAINLY ISOLATED, IT HAS THE
BEST POTENTIAL TO AFFECT DBQ AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST,
ALLOWING SOME OF THE RIVER FOG THERE TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE
HILL THE AIRPORT IT ON. FOR NOW, I'VE MVFR VISIBILITY AROUND 4SM
FOR THIS FOG THREAT, BUT SHOULD IT OCCUR, IT COULD BE 1-3 MILES
AT TIMES IN FOG. AFTER 14Z, ALL FOG IN ALL AREAS WILL BURN OFF,
WITH ANOTHER GREAT VFR DAY TO FOLLOW.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...ERVIN
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