614
FXUS63 KDVN 070458
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1158 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE
WORK WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
- BUILDING HEAT THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
TYPICAL SUMMER WARM WEATHER IS IN PLACE WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH
ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE HEAT, BUT GENERALLY FAR SHORT OF ANYTHING MUCH
ABOVE 90F HEAT INDEX. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS DRAWING
IN SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR, WITH DEW POINTS FALLING TO THE MID
60S IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST.
TONIGHT, THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD EVENTUALLY
REACHING OVER TOP OUR LOCAL AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PLEASANT, QUIET AND MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT, WITH
SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN, SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN THIS
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING WARM SUNNY WEATHER TO THE REGION
TOMORROW, WITH LIGHT WINDS. HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH ONCE
AGAIN, AS DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOST OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY, AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST, AND AN APPROACHING FRONT
APPROACHES NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 WILL BE SEEN, WITH DEW POINTS RISING TO THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70S. THOUGH WARMER, THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST REMAINS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S, SO WELL UNDER WHAT WAS SEEN A FEW DAYS
AGO.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. DURING THIS PROCESS, MUCH LIKE A FEW DAYS
AGO, SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES ARE POSSIBLE, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE, BUT SIGNALS THIS
FAR OUT DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF HIGH END, NOR WIDESPREAD
IMPACT. STILL, A BOUNDARY IN PLACE WITH JULY WARMTH/HUMIDITY WILL
OFFER AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN DIURNAL STORMS
GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHERE
CAPPING/EML IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BEYOND FRIDAY, ALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW A LARGE
ANOMALOUS 598 DAM 500MB RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND WITH THE MATURING CROPS ADDING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE ATMOSPHERE, WE COULD SEE MORE HEAT
HEADLINES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST CPC DAY 6-10 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS 85% COMBINED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND CALM WIND IN A MOIST BL WILL ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.
WITH NBM MVFR PROBABILITIES OVER 30% DECIDED TO ADD MVFR VSBYS
AT ALL SITES, WITH LONGEST DURATIONS AT CID/DBQ. AFTER SUNRISE,
ANY SHALLOW FOG WILL QUICKLY LIFT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
TURNING SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN/GROSS
AVIATION...GROSS
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