516
FXUS63 KDVN 071720
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
- BUILDING HEAT THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR AND RADAR MOSAICS SHOW A WEAKENING
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING SOUTH OVER MN.
CLOSER TO HOME, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RAP ANALYSIS HAS THE
CENTER OF A 1019MB HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST WI NEAR BOSCOBEL.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE 0-2 DEGREE RANGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNRISE TODAY,
ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. SOME GUIDANCE
WAS EVEN SHOWING SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST IA
BEFORE 12Z, BUT HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON THIS SOLUTION. OTHERWISE,
ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH SIMILAR
HUMIDITY LEVELS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND A HIGH SUN ANGLE, AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW, WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA OVER MN AND WI, AS A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH
INTO IA. WHILE FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AIDED BY 30-40KT MID-LEVEL FLOW, DROPPING SOUTHEAST
CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY. THE QUESTION BECOMES WILL THEY ACTUALLY REACH OUR
AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING AND CAM GUIDANCE IS MIXED. BETTER
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA, BUT IF STORMS DO REACH THE NORTHERN CWA THEY WILL
OCCUR IN A HIGH PW+SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO
SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS IDEA AND STILL HAS DCAPE VALUES
AROUND 600 J/KG AT 03Z NEAR THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR. NOT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE RAIN HOWEVER AND THERE WILL BE MANY DRY HOURS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH AND STALL OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHOWN BY SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS MOVES ACROSS IOWA. A MORE FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE IS ALSO BEING SUGGESTED WITH THIS WAVE
LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. AS A RESULT, THE SPC NOW
HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
LINE FROM WASHINGTON IA TO STERLING IL. IN ADDITION, A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE LEADING TO A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT.
BEYOND FRIDAY, ALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW A LARGE
ANOMALOUS 598 DAM 500MB RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND WITH THE MATURING CROPS ADDING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE ATMOSPHERE, WE COULD SEE MORE HEAT
HEADLINES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST CPC DAY 6-10 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS 85% COMBINED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL, RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...UTTECH
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