403
FXUS63 KDVN 081727
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1227 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE
THIS EVENING. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
POSSIBLE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK, WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF HEAT BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN MCS OVER MN/SD THAT
RECENT LOOPS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING, ESPECIALLY
ITS EASTWARD EXTENT. CLOSER TO HOME, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
OVERHEAD WITH VERY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE 2 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO, WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION, WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB TEMPS (18-19C), SIMILAR MIXING DEPTHS, AND
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES AND
HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF STORMS INITIATING TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST 00Z HREF AND 00Z REFS
NEIGHBORHOOD AND PAINTBALL PROGS SHOW TWO MAIN AREAS TO WATCH
THIS EVENING FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT; OVER WEST CENTRAL
WI/SOUTHEAST MN AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN IA. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY (CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG) AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
AS STORMS FIRE ALONG A COOL FRONT. HOWEVER, MARGINAL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND NOT IDEAL TIME OF
ARRIVAL BECOME THE LIMITING FACTORS AND LEAD TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN SEVERE STORMS REACHING OUR AREA. NONETHELESS, WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE ACTIVITY OUT WEST THIS EVENING FOR ANY DEVELOPING COLD
POOLS. IF THEY CAN MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH AND REACH THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BELLE PLAINE TO
DYERSVILLE. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND WITH ANY
BOWING SEGMENTS AND WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS, HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A GENERAL TIMING OF SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
BETWEEN 7PM AND MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUB-SEVERE ACTIVITY
IN THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AND OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY MORNING
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH AND
STALL OVER NORTHERN MO, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
ALONG IT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
JET AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z REFS. WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING A
SEVERE RISK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM ANY MORNING
STORMS MAY LIMIT ATMOSPHERE RECOVERY AND THEREBY KEEP THE SEVERE
RISK FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN ANY CASE, A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS FOR NORTHEAST MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DROP WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, TAKING WITH IT ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION. SOME 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS (NAM/GFS) SHOW YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY, BRINGING WITH IT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AN
ELEVATED THETA-E BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST HAS 30-50%
CHANCES FOR STORMS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-80 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, WITH
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER, IF A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED
MCV WERE TO TAKE PLACE UPSTREAM ENHANCING THE WIND FIELD, THEN
SOME SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. LOOKING INTO SATURDAY,
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 80S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE (12Z NAEFS/ENS 2.5 TO 3 SIGMA FROM THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEAN) BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN FACT, THE 12Z
GEFS/ENS/GEPS HAS THIS RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE LOWER 48
BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH ITS CENTER NOT THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA. AS A RESULT, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS, AND BUILDING HEAT IS LIKELY. FACTORING IN
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF MATURING CROPS, I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE MORE HEAT HEADLINES NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AREA. APPARENT T PROBABILITIES OF 95 DEGREES OR HIGHER OFF THE
LREF (100 MEMBER ENSEMBLE OF THE GEFS/ENS/GEPS) ARE IN THE
40-60% RANGE TUESDAY-THURSDAY. IF THAT WERE NOT ENOUGH, THE
LATEST CPC 8-14 DAY HAZARD OUTLOOK HAS A MODERATE (40-60%) RISK
OF EXTREME HEAT FOR MOST OF THE CWA JULY 15TH-17TH. SUMMER HEAT
LOVERS REJOICE, BUT FOR ALL THE REST OF US, WE WILL NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE MONTH FOR SOME RELIEF PERHAPS FROM
STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FIELD OF DAYTIME CUMULUS AT 3500 FT
DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM BRL TO MLI TO JUST SOUTH OF DBQ. WINDS
THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LATE TONIGHT
IN THE 09/02-07Z WINDOW, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A DECAYING CLUSTER
OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN IA AND IMPACT CID/DBQ. AT THIS TIME,
LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORMS CONTINUING HAS KEPT THESE AS A PROB30, WITH
MENTION OF TS ONLY AT DBQ, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST BUT STILL
LIMITED. IF STORMS ARE STRONGER, THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS
IN HEAVY RAIN AT CID/DBQ.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...ELLINGWORTH
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