131
FXUS63 KDVN 090732
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
232 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE (20-40%) OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN
30-50 MPH GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-380 CORRIDOR AND
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS BENTON COUNTY LAST EVENING, HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AIDING IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL IA AND SOUTHWEST WI AT THE MOMENT. FINALLY, A STRONG LLJ
IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF STORMS JUST WEST OF THE KC METRO
OVER NORTHEAST KS THIS MORNING.
A COOLER AND CLOUDIER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED OFF-AND-ON
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION, RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. TRYING TO PIN DOWN WHERE AND WHEN THESE MAY OCCUR IS
DIFFICULT IN THIS PATTERN AND GIVEN THE WIDE ARRAY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DECIDED TO GO WITH AREA- WIDE 20-40% POPS. HOWEVER,
NOT ALL AREAS SHOULD EXPECT RAIN TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LARGELY UN-CAPPED ENVIRONMENT BUT A RATHER MARGINAL CAPE/SHEAR
OVERLAP FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL LOCALLY. THUNDER MAY ALSO BE HARD
TO COME BY WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE 00Z REFS 1-HR
THUNDER PROGS (40%) MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL IL. NONETHELESS, IF A FEW STORMS DO OCCUR BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST CELLS. ANY ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE TODAY, WITH CLOUD BREAKS
AND PRECIP DURATION POSSIBLY THROWING A WRENCH IN THE FORECAST.
HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS, TO DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND BRING MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE
TIMING, STRENGTH, AND LOCATION OF THIS WAVE IS STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS
TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THIS WEEKEND...BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO
BRING LARGELY DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LATEST NBM LOADED
SOME LINGERING SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL ON SATURDAY
THAT IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE 00Z NAM OUTLIER SOLUTION. I EXPECT
THESE TO DECREASE FURTHER WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD ALSO BE MORE TOLERABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
NEXT WEEK...LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND IF IT GETS TO 599DAM AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z GFS, IT COULD
BECOME A TOP 10 SOUNDING FOR 500MB HEIGHTS AT OAX OR ABR!
LOCALLY, THIS WILL BRING A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF DRY
CONDITIONS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND BUILDING HEAT.
FACTORING IN THE MATURING CROPS, HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO
LOW 100S APPEAR VERY PLAUSIBLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MORE HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA NEXT
WEEK. APPARENT T PROBABILITIES OF 95 DEGREES OR HIGHER OFF THE
LREF (100 MEMBER ENSEMBLE OF THE GEFS/ENS/GEPS) ARE IN THE
40-60% RANGE TUESDAY-THURSDAY. TAKING A LOOK AT THE WPC
EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK PRODUCT, MODERATE IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THOSE WHO
ARE THE MOST SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT. THE LATEST CPC 8-14 DAY
HAZARD OUTLOOK ALSO MAINTAINS A MODERATE (40-60%) RISK OF
EXTREME HEAT FOR MOST OF THE CWA JULY 16TH-18TH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
DECAYING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH EAST OVER
EASTERN IA OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. ADDED A TEMPO AT MLI FOR -TSRA
AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30KTS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER OVER CENTRAL IA TO SLOWLY
TRACK EAST AND MAY REACH CID PRIOR TO SUNRISE. ADDED PROB30
MENTION FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR ANY AMENDMENTS. BEHIND THIS ROUND, MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
LAYER RH PROGS SHOW MVFR CIGS AT DBQ THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH LOW VFR FURTHER SOUTH. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AS SUGGESTED BY HI-RES MODELS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS
TIME.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...GROSS
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